A new report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) reveals that Russia orchestrated a sophisticated drone surveillance campaign targeting nuclear sites across Europe for over 18 months. The analysis, covering 144 incidents in more than a dozen countries starting in late 2024, concludes that Russian intelligence operated with substantial impunity, leaving European authorities flat-footed and confused. Drones were repeatedly spotted over airbases and airports, yet none were captured or shot down by Western militaries, exposing a strategic failure in NATO air defenses.
The Kremlin used drones launched from shadow fleet vessels operating in the North Sea. These ships, often sailing with their transponders switched off in a practice known as “dark sailing,” served as launch platforms for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Other ships acted as recovery vessels or signal repeaters, using drone control techniques first learned during the war in Ukraine. The campaign targeted nuclear sites in the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Key Targets of the Drone Surveillance Campaign
The IISS report highlights several critical incidents where drones were detected near sensitive military installations. These sites are central to NATO’s nuclear deterrent and the security of European nations.
RAF Lakenheath and Other UK Bases
In late November 2024, unusual drones flew low into RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, and at least two other US air force bases in England. US nuclear weapons were deployed at Lakenheath in July 2025. The drones may have been piloted from the Seasons 1 tanker in the North Sea near Essex or the Hav Dolphin, a cargo vessel docked at Hull at the time. A police helicopter attempted to track drones flying into the UK on one occasion but pulled back for safety reasons. Firing an anti-drone laser “was suggested but ultimately not progressed,” the report said.
France’s Île Longue Nuclear Submarine Base
Five drones were detected over France’s Île Longue base in Brittany in December 2025. This base is home to the country’s sea-launched nuclear missile arsenal. Three Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels were between 60 and 120 miles off shore, and the Hav Dolphin was 220 miles away near the Isle of Wight.
Belgian and Dutch Airbases
Drone incursions occurred in November and December 2025 over the Kleine-Brogel airbase in Belgium and Volkel in the Netherlands. Both locations store air-launched US nuclear weapons. At the time of the incursions, Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels were in international waters in the North Sea.
NATO’s Air Defense Failure
The IISS report describes a strategic failure in NATO air defenses that has been “quietly acknowledged” across Europe. Despite repeated drone incursions, no drones were captured or shot down by Western militaries. European governments have been reluctant to publicly accuse Russia, but Charlie Edwards, a senior IISS fellow, said “every government we spoke to said they would welcome the report being published.” The thinktank concluded that Russian intelligence had operated with substantial impunity, leaving authorities confused and unprepared.
How the Drone Campaign Worked
The drones were likely launched from “dark sailing” vessels operating off the coast of target countries with their transponder tracking devices switched off. The IISS analysis of 144 incidents found that other ships acted as recovery vessels or signal repeaters, using drone control techniques first learned during the war in Ukraine. This coordinated campaign spanned more than a dozen countries beginning in late 2024.
| Country | Target Site | Incident Date |
|---|---|---|
| UK | RAF Lakenheath, RAF Fairford | November 2024 |
| France | Île Longue (nuclear submarine base) | December 2025 |
| Belgium | Kleine-Brogel airbase | November–December 2025 |
| Netherlands | Volkel airbase | November–December 2025 |
Implications for European Security
This surveillance campaign represents a significant intelligence breach and raises serious questions about the vulnerability of NATO’s nuclear deterrent. The IISS report urges European governments to strengthen air defense systems and improve coordination to counter such threats. The use of shadow fleet vessels and drone technology from the Ukraine war highlights the evolving nature of espionage and hybrid warfare.
FAQ
What did the IISS report reveal about Russia’s drone surveillance?
The IISS report analyzed 144 incidents in more than a dozen countries starting in late 2024. It concluded that Russia orchestrated a coordinated UAV campaign targeting nuclear sites in the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands using drones launched from shadow fleet vessels in the North Sea.
Why were no drones captured or shot down by NATO?
The report describes a strategic failure in NATO air defenses. Despite repeated sightings, no drones were intercepted. European governments were reportedly confused and reluctant to accuse Russia publicly, allowing the surveillance to continue with substantial impunity.
Which nuclear sites were specifically targeted?
Key targets included RAF Lakenheath and RAF Fairford in the UK, France’s Île Longue submarine base, Kleine-Brogel airbase in Belgium, and Volkel airbase in the Netherlands. These sites are associated with US and French nuclear weapons storage or deployment.
