Victorian Labor Trails One Nation in Shock New Poll 2026

Victorian Labor is trailing One Nation in a shock new poll ahead of the 2026 state election, with its primary vote at an all-time low of just 18%. The DemosAU/PremierNational poll, first published by the Herald Sun on Monday, has sparked both scepticism and serious concern among Labor MPs.

Poll Results: Labor's Primary Vote Crashes

The poll shows Labor's primary vote share has crashed seven points to 18%, putting it in third place behind the Coalition's 33% and One Nation's 21%. The Greens also improved their primary vote to 17%, an increase of three points since September.

On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition now leads Labor 56-44, compared with 52-48 in September. This represents a significant swing against the incumbent government.

Implications for the 2026 Election

According to DemosAU's head of research, George Hasanakos, if the poll were replicated on election night, many contests across the state would be between the Liberals or Nationals and One Nation. This would result in a "clear Coalition majority," he said.

Hasanakos noted that One Nation would need to poll "really, really well" to have a chance of winning, as Labor and Greens preferences would flow to the Liberals. This dynamic could reshape the political landscape in Victoria.

Labor MPs React with Concern and Scepticism

Victorian Labor MPs are both sceptical and seriously concerned about the poll. Some question the methodology, while others acknowledge the party is facing a tough battle.

The poll's findings have prompted internal discussions about campaign strategy and the need to reconnect with voters. Labor's primary vote has been declining in recent months, and this poll underscores the challenges ahead.

Electoral Commission's Two-Candidate-Preferred Count

On election night, the Victorian Electoral Commission plans to conduct a two-candidate-preferred count (2CP) between the two candidates it expects to finish with the most support after preferences are distributed. They are selecting the indicative 2CP for each seat based on polling, analysis of preference flows, and results from previous elections.

This process will be crucial in determining the final outcome, especially in seats where One Nation is competitive.

Key Takeaways from the Poll

• Labor's primary vote has fallen to 18%, a record low.
• The Coalition leads 56-44 on a two-party preferred basis.
• One Nation is polling at 21%, ahead of Labor.
• The Greens have increased their primary vote to 17%.
• Many seats could become contests between the Coalition and One Nation.

Comparison of Polling Figures

The table illustrates the significant shift in voter support, with Labor losing ground to both the Coalition and One Nation.

What This Means for Victorian Politics

The poll suggests a major realignment in Victorian politics, with One Nation emerging as a serious contender. Labor's traditional base appears to be eroding, and the party must act quickly to reverse the trend. The background to this story is set out in Labor's Immigration Policy and One Nation Challenge. A related thread runs through Labor's Immigration Policy Challenge: One Nation Threat.

The result could have national implications, as other states and the federal government monitor the situation closely. Earlier coverage in Victoria 2026 Election: What Voters Need to Know shows how the argument developed. A closer look at the same subject appears in One Nation Threatens Nationals in Regional Victoria.

The poll's findings are a wake-up call for Victorian Labor. As the 2026 election approaches, the party must address voter concerns and rebuild trust. The rise of One Nation and the Coalition's strong showing present a formidable challenge.

For a broader perspective on how vaccine scepticism is influencing Australian politics, see our analysis of US vaccine scepticism threatening Australian child immunisation. This highlights the interconnectedness of global and local issues.

Meanwhile, the political shift in Germany, where the far-right AfD made gains, offers a parallel to the rise of One Nation in Australia. Our report on Germany's far-right AfD win sparking Europe concern provides valuable context for understanding these trends.

In Israel, exit polls show Netanyahu's bloc trailing, reflecting similar volatility in global politics. Read our coverage of Israel election exit polls showing Netanyahu bloc trailing for more on how established leaders are facing challenges.

Back in Australia, the declining approval of Angus Taylor is another sign of shifting political fortunes. Our article on Angus Taylor approval plummeting details the challenges facing key political figures.

As Victorian Labor grapples with this poll, the party's response will be closely watched. The 2026 election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.