Small Business Confidence Holds Steady Despite Trump's Low Approval 2026

Small business owners are feeling relatively confident about their own operations even as President Donald Trump's overall approval ratings remain low, according to recent surveys. With 34 million small businesses employing about half the country's workers and generating roughly half of GDP, this voting bloc could prove pivotal in November's midterm elections.

Small Business Optimism: Stable but Cautious

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reported this week that its Small Business Optimism Index fell just below its long-term average, while uncertainty rose slightly. Labor quality was the top concern for 26% of owners, followed by inflation at 20%. Expansion plans weakened, though 17% still intend to add jobs in the next three months.

Despite the dip, confidence remains generally stable. The NFIB data suggests owners are not panicking but are proceeding with caution amid economic crosscurrents.

Cash Flow Comfort vs. Economic Pessimism

A separate survey from Justworks and the US Chamber of Commerce found that small-business confidence improved significantly in the third quarter. Of the 750 small businesses surveyed, 72% say they are comfortable with their current cash flow. However, only 27% believe the US economy is in good health.

Inflation remains the biggest problem, cited by 54% of owners. This dichotomy—personal financial comfort paired with broader economic pessimism—highlights the nuanced mood of small business owners.

Hiring Holds Steady

HR platform Gusto estimated that small businesses added 28,000 jobs in September, indicating that hiring is neither strong nor weak. This modest job growth aligns with the stable but cautious sentiment reported by other surveys.

While expansion plans have weakened, the fact that 17% of owners still plan to add jobs suggests underlying resilience in the sector.

Key Takeaways for Small Business Owners

• Small business confidence is stable but below historical averages, with uncertainty slightly elevated.
• Labor quality and inflation are the top concerns for owners, with inflation cited by 54% as the biggest problem.
• 72% of small businesses are comfortable with their cash flow, but only 27% think the overall economy is in good health.
• Hiring is modest, with 28,000 jobs added in September, and 17% of owners plan to hire in the next three months.
• This voting bloc could influence midterm elections, as economic sentiment varies between personal operations and national outlook.

Comparing Survey Findings

Different surveys paint a mixed picture of small business sentiment. The table below summarizes key metrics from two major surveys.

What This Means for the Midterms

With small business owners representing a significant voting bloc, their economic sentiment could sway election outcomes. While they express confidence in their own businesses, their pessimism about the broader economy may translate into protest votes or apathy.

President Trump's low approval ratings could be a drag on Republican candidates, but if small business owners feel financially secure, they may be less motivated to vote for change. The key will be whether they attribute their personal success to current policies or to their own hard work.

FAQ

As the midterms approach, the contrast between small business owners' personal confidence and their dim view of the national economy will be a key dynamic to watch. If this bloc turns out to vote based on broader economic pessimism, it could spell trouble for the incumbent party.

For a deeper look at how economic sentiment is shaping political narratives, see our analysis of Seth Meyers slamming Trump's approval ratings. Meanwhile, the business community continues to adapt to new challenges, as shown by AI adoption lessons from big brands.

Ownership changes are also in the news, with Charlton up for sale as US owners seek a buyer. And for a lighter take on the news cycle, check out RFK Jr's cooking show and hilariously awkward pet moments. Even cats doing strange things offer a distraction from the serious economic news.