Substrate Claims It Can Build Advanced Lithography Machines; ASML Disagrees 2026

Substrate, a US startup, claims it can build an advanced lithography machine that rivals ASML's most sophisticated equipment, but ASML's CEO says that's not remotely possible. The claim has sparked debate in the semiconductor industry, where ASML holds a virtual monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines essential for cutting-edge chips.

Founded in 2022 by brothers James and Oliver Proud, Substrate has raised over $100 million and achieved a valuation exceeding $1 billion, backed by Peter Thiel. Its bold promise: to produce a lithography system as advanced as ASML's. But industry experts and ASML itself are skeptical.

What Substrate Claims and Why It Matters

Substrate's ambition taps into a critical US priority: reducing dependence on foreign suppliers for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Currently, ASML of the Netherlands is the only company capable of producing EUV lithography machines, which are necessary to fabricate the most advanced semiconductors. This monopoly gives ASML significant leverage in the global chip supply chain.

In the context of US-China technological rivalry, having a domestic supplier of advanced lithography equipment would be a strategic asset. Substrate's promise, if realized, could disrupt ASML's dominance and bolster US chip independence. However, the technical and financial hurdles are immense.

ASML's Response: No One Is Close

Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML, dismissed Substrate's claims in an interview with TechCrunch's Connie Loizos, stating that no company on the planet is in a position to compete with ASML. He emphasized the challenges of lithography, implying that Substrate's timeline and capabilities are unrealistic.

ASML has spent decades and billions of dollars developing EUV technology, which involves complex optics, precision engineering, and a vast supply chain. Replicating that feat is not just about funding; it requires deep expertise and long-term R&D.

Key Takeaways

• Substrate, founded in 2022, claims it can build an EUV lithography machine competitive with ASML's.
• ASML's CEO says no company is remotely close to challenging its lithography dominance.
• Substrate has raised over $100 million and is valued at over $1 billion, with backing from Peter Thiel.
• The US has a strategic interest in domestic advanced lithography to counter China and reduce reliance on ASML.
• Industry experts remain skeptical due to the immense technical and financial barriers.

Why Lithography Is So Hard

EUV lithography is one of the most complex technologies ever developed. It involves generating extreme ultraviolet light, focusing it with atomically precise mirrors, and patterning silicon wafers at nanometer scales. The machines weigh hundreds of tons and require a global supply chain of specialized components.

ASML's journey to EUV leadership spanned decades and involved partnerships with research institutions and suppliers. Substrate, just four years old, would need to replicate this ecosystem from scratch. Even with substantial funding, the path is daunting.

Comparison: ASML vs. Substrate

The Strategic Context

The US government has been actively working to onshore semiconductor manufacturing and equipment production. The CHIPS Act provides subsidies for domestic chip fabrication, but lithography equipment remains a bottleneck. If Substrate could deliver, it would be a game-changer for US semiconductor independence. The background to this story is set out in ASML: The Single Machine Behind Every Advanced Chip. A related thread runs through ASML CEO Warns: Squeezing China May Create a Competitor. Earlier coverage in Zeiss CEO Claims China Is 15 Years Behind in Lithography Optics shows how the argument developed.

However, skepticism is warranted. ASML's CEO's dismissive comments reflect the consensus among industry veterans. Substrate's claims may attract investment and attention, but proving them will require more than bold statements. A closer look at the same subject appears in China Mass-Produces Domestic DUV Lithography Machines in Chip Breakthrough. Anyone following the wider picture can start with ASML Taiwan Expansion: 1,000 New Hires for AI Chip Demand. The same theme surfaces in ASML Monopoly Faces China's DUV Challenge: What It Means, which takes a different angle.

What to Watch Next

Substrate's progress will be closely watched by investors, competitors, and governments. Key milestones include demonstrating a prototype, securing supply chain partners, and achieving performance metrics comparable to ASML. Until then, ASML's dominance appears secure. Context on how this played out before sits in Jensen Huang: China's Advanced Lithography Is Just Around the Corner. A companion piece, China's Laser Trick Bypasses 2,000 ASML Patents in EUV Lithography, approaches the same subject from another angle.

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