Half of UK voters now support rejoin EU, according to a new megapoll by the Messina Group (TMG). The survey found that renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the European Union could boost Labour’s vote share by as much as seven points if the prime minister offered a fresh referendum and campaigned to re-enter the bloc.
Megapoll Findings: Public Support for Rejoining the EU
The TMG poll reveals deep public appetite for reversing Brexit. Almost half of all voters back rejoin EU, and the political incentives for Labour are significant. If Labour explicitly championed re-entry, its vote share could increase by up to seven percentage points — a potentially game-changing shift in UK politics.
However, the poll also highlights divisions over how to proceed. Nearly a third of voters said an in-out referendum would be needed first, while more than one in six felt a general election mandate would suffice. The same proportion believed parliament could make the decision on its own.
Labour’s Political Calculus: Risks and Rewards
Andy Burnham’s personal preference to rejoin the EU after the next election is supported by almost half of all voters. In his first Labour conference speech as leader on Tuesday, Burnham announced a review of options for Britain’s future relationship with Europe, adding that these should include rejoining entirely.
Yet cabinet ministers concerned about reopening Brexit divides are privately urging caution. Some Labour MPs, especially those in constituencies that voted for Brexit, fear that even testing public support for rejoin EU would be politically fraught.
Potential Vote Share Impact
| Scenario | Estimated Labour Vote Share Change |
|---|---|
| Labour campaigns to rejoin EU | +7 points |
| Labour negotiates closer ties but no referendum | +2 to +3 points (est.) |
| No change in EU stance | 0 points |
Key Takeaways for UK Politics
- Half of UK voters support rejoin EU, creating a potential electoral advantage for Labour.
- Labour could gain up to 7 percentage points if it backs a re-entry referendum.
- Divisions remain on the mechanism: referendum, election mandate, or parliamentary decision.
- Some Labour MPs in Brexit-voting areas urge caution to avoid reopening old divides.
What This Means for Brexit and Beyond
The findings will bolster Downing Street figures who want Labour to promise at the next election that it would at least negotiate over re-entry. The prime minister has said he wants to see the UK rejoin “in his lifetime”.
But the path to rejoin EU is not straightforward. The poll suggests that while public support is growing, political leaders must navigate a complex landscape of voter expectations and internal party tensions.
FAQ
How many UK voters support rejoining the EU?
Almost half of all voters support rejoin EU, according to the Messina Group megapoll.
Could Labour gain votes by backing EU re-entry?
Yes, the poll found Labour’s vote share could increase by up to seven points if the prime minister offered a fresh referendum and campaigned to re-enter the bloc.
What do voters think is needed before rejoining the EU?
Nearly a third said an in-out referendum would be needed first, while more than one in six felt a general election mandate would suffice, and the same proportion thought parliament could decide.
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