Labour Overtakes Reform in Poll: Burnham's Momentum Shifts UK 2026

Labour has overtaken Reform UK in a voter intention poll for the first time since March 2025, as Andy Burnham's first week as prime minister delivers a surge in support. The latest More in Common tracker shows Labour up four points to 28%, while Reform drops two to 24% and the Greens fall three to 8%. This shift marks a pivotal moment in UK politics, driven by Burnham's policy blitz and Reform's ongoing controversies.

Burnham's Early Momentum: What's Driving Labour's Poll Surge?

Andy Burnham has capitalized on a jam-packed week of high-profile announcements, from cost-of-living measures to media appearances. Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, notes that the prime minister's focus on economic concerns has appealed to voters Labour lost on both the left and right. This is Labour's highest vote share since late 2024, signaling a potential realignment in voter sentiment.

Burnham himself remains cautious, stating he won't get "carried away" but is pleased to have "connected with people." His agenda for the coming weeks includes tackling youth unemployment, social care, and housing—issues that resonate with working-class voters who had drifted to Reform.

Reform UK's Troubles: Scandals and Byelection Farce

Reform UK and Nigel Farage have faced weeks of negative headlines, including undeclared gifts, a convicted fraudster adviser, and a chaotic byelection in Clacton. Focus groups by pollster Michael Ashcroft reveal growing anger among constituents, with some accusing Farage of using them as "pawns in his little game." This backlash is eroding Reform's support, particularly in key battlegrounds.

The party's drop to 24%—its lowest in months—suggests that voters are punishing Reform for its internal turmoil. The Greens also fell to 8%, indicating that Labour is winning back progressive voters who had defected.

Poll Comparison: Labour vs. Reform vs. Tories

The table above illustrates the shifting landscape. While Labour leads, the Tories remain stagnant at 22%, and the Lib Dems are making modest gains. The real story is Labour's ability to attract voters from both Reform and the Greens, positioning itself as the central alternative.

Key Takeaways for Political Observers

• Labour's surge is driven by Burnham's cost-of-living focus and high media visibility.
• Reform's scandals are alienating voters, as seen in Clacton focus groups.
• The Greens' decline suggests Labour is reclaiming left-wing voters.
• Burnham plans to address youth unemployment, social care, and housing this week.
• One poll doesn't guarantee long-term trends, but momentum is clearly with Labour.

What This Means for the Next Election

If Labour can sustain this momentum, it could reshape the electoral map. However, Burnham's caution reflects awareness that early leads can evaporate. The coming weeks will test whether his policy announcements translate into lasting support, especially as Reform attempts to regroup.

For now, the political landscape is volatile, with voters responding to tangible issues like the cost of living. Labour's challenge is to convert this poll bounce into a durable coalition, while Reform must address its credibility crisis to regain trust.

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