COP31 Host: Climate Spending Must Exceed Defence Budgets 2026

The COP31 host has urged wealthy countries to spend much more on climate than defence, arguing that the climate crisis is the ultimate security issue. Turkish climate minister Murat Kurum, president-designate of the next UN summit, made the call ahead of COP31 in Antalya this November. His comments challenge NATO's 5% of GDP defence pledge and set the stage for tense negotiations.

Climate Spending vs Defence: The Core Argument

Kurum's central claim is that climate finance should dwarf military budgets because climate change amplifies every other threat—from migration to conflict. He pointed to the 5% of GDP that NATO members have agreed to spend on defence, suggesting climate should command a similar or greater share. The logic is simple: without a stable climate, there is no long-term security.

But the political reality is far more complicated. Many wealthy nations already face pressure to increase defence spending due to geopolitical turmoil, including wars in Europe and the Middle East. Adding a comparable climate commitment could strain budgets already stretched thin.

Fossil Fuel Transition: A Contentious Hedge

Kurum hedged on whether COP31 should repeat the previous agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, the primary driver of global warming. He told the Guardian that the world is "already in a transition" and suggested fossil fuel use could be addressed indirectly through other measures. This stance is likely to prove contentious among climate-vulnerable nations and activists who demand a clear phase-out.

Australia, serving as "president of negotiations" at COP31, pushed to hold the pre-COP meeting in Fiji to highlight the plight of island nations. Yet only 13 national leaders joined Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Nadi, reflecting the low priority many governments place on climate amid other crises.

Key Takeaways from the COP31 Pre-Summit

• Wealthy nations are urged to spend far more on climate than defence, with climate framed as the ultimate security issue.
• The COP31 host hedged on repeating a fossil fuel phase-out commitment, suggesting an indirect approach.
• Only 13 leaders attended the Fiji pre-COP, signaling waning political focus on climate.
• Australia's role as "president of negotiations" aims to amplify Pacific island voices.

Comparing Spending Priorities: Defence vs Climate

To understand the scale of Kurum's proposal, consider how current spending stacks up. The table below contrasts NATO's defence target with existing climate finance pledges.

The gap is stark. Even the $100 billion annual climate finance goal, which developed countries struggled to meet, represents a tiny fraction of GDP compared to defence. Kurum's call would require a seismic shift in budget priorities.

Geopolitical Turmoil and the Road to COP31

The pre-COP meeting in Fiji took place against a backdrop of war, a historic energy crisis, and an unpredictable US administration with a history of climate denial. These factors, combined with the knowledge that many would attend the main summit in a few weeks, kept attendance low. Only 13 national leaders joined Albanese, a sign that climate remains a second-tier issue for many governments.

Kurum's comments are likely to resonate with climate-vulnerable nations, but they also risk alienating wealthy countries already wary of expanding climate commitments. The success of COP31 in Antalya will depend on whether the host can bridge this divide.

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