El Niño Strengthens: Why Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes This Year 2026

El Niño is strengthening, and one major consequence is fewer Atlantic hurricanes this season. As of late September 2023, the Atlantic has yet to record its first hurricane—a rare event that underscores the powerful influence of this climate pattern. In the 30 years to 2020, the first Atlantic hurricane typically formed by August 11, the second by August 26, and the third by September 7. This year, the count remains zero, defying historical norms.

What Is El Niño and How Does It Affect Hurricanes?

El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, coupled with a weakening of the trade winds. This shift in atmospheric circulation has far-reaching effects, including increased wind shear over the Atlantic. Wind shear refers to the change in wind speed and direction with height. High wind shear disrupts the vertical structure of tropical storms, making it difficult for them to organize and intensify into hurricanes.

The Role of Wind Shear in Suppressing Storms

Tropical cyclones require a stable atmosphere with light winds aloft to develop. When wind shear is strong, it tilts the storm's circulation, preventing the release of heat energy that fuels intensification. During El Niño years, the enhanced wind shear over the Atlantic acts as a natural barrier, reducing the number of storms that can reach hurricane strength. This year, that barrier has been particularly effective.

NOAA Forecasts and Current Season Trends

At the start of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA predicted a quiet year, anticipating between three and six hurricanes—well below the average of seven. In August, the agency trimmed its forecast to two to six hurricanes. So far, those predictions are holding true. The latest date for a first Atlantic hurricane was September 11, in 2002 and 2013. With no named storms yet, 2023 is on track to set a new record for the latest first hurricane.

Contrasting Activity in the Eastern Pacific

While the Atlantic has been unusually quiet, the eastern Pacific has seen plenty of activity, with seven hurricanes so far. This disparity highlights El Niño's regional impacts: it suppresses storms in the Atlantic but enhances them in the Pacific by reducing wind shear there. The energy added by a strong El Niño may also produce more powerful tropical storms later in the season, so coastal residents should remain vigilant.

Key Takeaways

• El Niño increases wind shear over the Atlantic, inhibiting hurricane formation.
• NOAA initially predicted 3–6 hurricanes; the August update lowered it to 2–6.
• As of late September, the Atlantic has had zero hurricanes—a record late start.
• The eastern Pacific has been active with seven hurricanes, showing El Niño's contrasting effects.
• Despite the quiet Atlantic, the season isn't over; powerful storms can still develop.

Comparing Hurricane Activity: El Niño vs. Neutral Years

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