India Coal Production Plans Drive Global Mining Surge 2026

India's coal production plans are driving a worldwide surge in new mining proposals, even as global coal demand plateaus. According to a new report by Global Energy Monitor, enough new coalmining projects were proposed in 2025 to increase global supplies by 2.5 billion tonnes annually—an 11% jump from the previous year. This increase was fueled almost entirely by India's states of Jharkhand and Odisha, which doubled their proposals in line with the country's ambitious coal output targets.

India's Coal Output Ambitions

India's ministry of coal aims to boost production to 1.15 billion tonnes in the 2025-26 fiscal year, a rise of nearly 100 million tonnes from current levels. This push is driven by the country's surging electricity demand, fueled by rapid economic growth and increasingly severe heatwaves linked to climate change. The government sees coal as a reliable baseload power source to ensure grid stability during peak demand periods.

Jharkhand and Odisha Lead the Charge

The states of Jharkhand and Odisha are at the forefront of this expansion, with their combined proposals for new coalmines doubling in 2025. These regions hold some of India's largest coal reserves, making them strategic hubs for the country's energy strategy. However, this local surge contrasts sharply with global trends, as other major coal producers scale back.

Global Coal Mining Trends: A Mixed Picture

While India ramps up proposals, the startup of new coalmining projects worldwide has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. In 2025, only enough new mines to produce about 113 million tonnes per year began operations—a 40% decline from 2024. This slowdown is largely due to sharp reductions in China and Australia, where new mine openings fell by 44% and 96%, respectively.

Divergence with Global Demand Forecasts

Global Energy Monitor warns that India's rise in proposals is at odds with the International Energy Agency's predictions of declining global coal demand by the end of the decade. Wind and solar power have already surpassed coal in the global electricity mix for the first time, signaling a structural shift. This divergence raises questions about the long-term viability of new coal investments.

Key Takeaways

• India's coal production plans are driving a 11% global increase in new mining proposals.
• Jharkhand and Odisha account for the majority of India's new coalmine proposals.
• Global new mine startups fell 40% in 2025, with China and Australia leading the decline.
• India's expansion conflicts with IEA forecasts of falling coal demand.
• Renewables are increasingly outperforming coal in global electricity generation.

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