US Voters Say Economy Is Getting Worse Ahead of Midterms 2026

As the midterm elections approach, a new exclusive poll reveals that key US voters say the economy is getting worse, with pessimism spreading across the political spectrum. According to a Harris poll conducted for the Guardian, three-quarters of Americans are concerned about a recession, and 61% wrongly believe the country is already in one. This growing economic discontent could have major implications for the upcoming elections.

Key Voter Groups Increasingly Pessimistic About the Economy

The poll shows that independents, rural voters, and even some Republicans are losing faith in the economy under President Donald Trump. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of independents say the economy is worse, a sharp increase from 48% in September 2024. This shift is particularly concerning for Republicans fighting to keep control of Congress, as independents are expected to be the deciding factor in key swing races.

Even within the Republican ranks, optimism has waned. In February 2025, just weeks after Trump's inauguration, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By February 2026, that optimism had risen to 49%, but in the latest poll, only 28% of Republicans say the economy is improving. This decline in confidence among the president's own base signals widespread economic unease.

Inflation and High Prices Dominate Voter Concerns

Voters consistently cite high prices at gas stations and grocery stores as a key factor in their voting decisions. The poll indicates that economic weariness is growing across the political spectrum, with many Americans feeling the pinch of inflation. Despite official data showing the US is not in a recession, the perception of economic decline is powerful and could drive voter behavior.

The disconnect between economic indicators and voter sentiment is striking. While the US is not currently experiencing a recession by its typical definition, the majority of those surveyed are pessimistic about the economy. This gap between reality and perception highlights the challenge for policymakers and candidates alike.

How Different Groups View the Economy

Implications for the Midterm Elections

With less than three weeks until the midterms, these findings suggest that economic anxiety could sway voters. Republicans, who are fighting to maintain their majority, face an uphill battle as independent voters increasingly disapprove of the economic direction. The poll shows that high prices will be a key factor when voters cast their ballots, potentially leading to significant shifts in Congress.

Democrats are likely to seize on this discontent, arguing that Republican policies have failed to address inflation and economic inequality. Meanwhile, Republicans may struggle to convince voters that the economy is on the right track, especially as their own base shows signs of doubt.

• Key takeaway 1: 65% of independents say the economy is getting worse, up from 48% in September 2024.
• Key takeaway 2: Only 28% of Republicans believe the economy is improving, down from 49% earlier in 2026.
• Key takeaway 3: 75% of Americans are concerned about a recession, and 61% incorrectly believe one is already occurring.
• Key takeaway 4: High prices at gas stations and grocery stores are a top voting issue.

FAQ

As the midterms draw near, the economy remains the top concern for voters. With key groups like independents and even Republicans expressing growing pessimism, the outcome of the elections could hinge on how candidates address these economic anxieties. For more insights on business and economic trends, stay tuned to GrandGoldman.com.