Saudi Arabia Learns It Can't Rely on Trump for Protection 2026

Saudi Arabia is discovering that its massive financial investments in the United States may not guarantee military protection from President Donald Trump. The kingdom's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has spent years cultivating a close relationship with Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, believing that billions in weapons deals and investments would secure American defense. But as conflict with Iran reignites, that assumption is being tested in dangerous ways.

The Transactional Relationship Between Saudi Arabia and Trump

Prince Mohammed understood Trump's transactional approach to power early on. He signed deals to buy billions of dollars' worth of US weapons and invested billions more in American companies. Days after Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, the prince pledged to expand investment and trade with the US by $600 billion over four years.

He later promised to increase that investment to nearly $1 trillion, although it wasn't entirely clear how Saudi Arabia would manage to plough a sum close to the kingdom's entire annual GDP into a foreign economy over a few years. On a visit to Washington last November, Prince Mohammed sealed a defense cooperation agreement with the US and signed a deal for the monarchy to buy dozens of F-35 stealth fighter jets, America's most advanced warplane.

Expectations of US Protection

Behind this flurry of deal-making, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler expected the US to defend the kingdom if it was attacked, as Washington has done in the past. But Prince Mohammed, like the leaders of other Arab petrostates who have invested billions of dollars to appease Trump, is learning a hard lesson: never count on Trump to protect you.

Over the summer, Trump's war against Iran rekindled a years-long conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis, backed by Iran, have launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including oil facilities. The US response has been measured, focusing on protecting American assets rather than Saudi territory.

Why the US-Saudi Security Guarantee Is Unraveling

The United States has historically provided security guarantees to Saudi Arabia in exchange for stable oil supplies and cooperation on counterterrorism. However, Trump's "America First" doctrine has shifted the calculus. He has repeatedly questioned the value of alliances and demanded that allies pay more for their own defense. Context on how this played out before sits in Saudi Arabia Learns It Can't Rely on Trump for Protection.

Moreover, Trump's personal rapport with Prince Mohammed has not translated into a blank check. The US has its own strategic priorities, including avoiding a direct war with Iran. When Saudi oil facilities were attacked in 2019, Trump famously said, "That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn't an attack on us." That sentiment appears to still guide his thinking. The background to this story is set out in Business: latest articles. A related thread runs through Saudi Arabia Flight Suspension After Houthi Airport Attack.

What This Means for Saudi Arabia's Security Strategy

Saudi Arabia now faces a stark reality: its massive investments in the US have not bought the protection it sought. The kingdom must diversify its security partnerships and develop its own defensive capabilities. It has already been deepening ties with China and Russia, though neither can replace the US military umbrella. Earlier coverage in Gulf Instability: New Era of Conflict Reshapes Middle East Alliances shows how the argument developed. A closer look at the same subject appears in Yemen's Saudi-Backed Government Launches Military Offensive.

Prince Mohammed's ambitious investment pledges may also come under scrutiny at home. If the US won't defend the kingdom, why pour nearly a trillion dollars into its economy? The Saudi public may question the wisdom of such deals, especially as Houthi attacks continue. Anyone following the wider picture can start with OpenAI Espionage Case: Saudi Engineer Charged in Mic Bug Incident. The same theme surfaces in 2027 Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia: Safety Fears After Riyadh Missile, which takes a different angle.

Key Takeaways for Observers

• Saudi Arabia's financial investments in the US have not guaranteed military protection.
• Trump's transactional approach means alliances are conditional and limited.
• The conflict with Iran and Houthi attacks expose Saudi vulnerability.
• Saudi Arabia may need to seek alternative security partners or boost its own defenses.
• The kingdom's massive investment pledges could face domestic backlash.

Comparing US Security Commitments to Saudi Investments