The El Niño climate phenomenon, linked to record global temperatures, could develop into the strongest on record, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. Climatologists are watching the strengthening El Niño with increasing alarm, saying the forecasts from climate models in the coming months are “mind blowing” and “astounding.”
What Makes This El Niño Different?
Globally, experts have said a strong El Niño could work in tandem with global heating to deliver the hottest year on record either this year or, more likely, in 2027. The bureau has stressed that the strength of an El Niño does not necessarily correlate with the strength of impacts in Australia, but the system generally brings hotter and drier conditions in winter and spring for southern and eastern parts.
Sea Surface Temperatures and Key Indicators
The climate phenomenon is characterised by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with the subsequent atmospheric upset fuelling more severe storms in some parts of the world and hot, dry conditions in others. A major indicator of the strength of an El Niño is the sea surface temperatures in one area of the equatorial Pacific – known as Niño 3.4.
Dr Zhi-Weng Chua, a senior climatologist at the bureau, said the highest reliable temperature value for previous El Niños was a monthly average of +2.6°C seen in that Pacific region in January 1983. But he said climate models were suggesting this El Niño could peak between +2.2°C and above +3°C. “There is a realistic chance that the peak anomaly of this event will rank in the top events, with a chance it could rank as the highest. It is remarkable, and it shows just how much heat there is in the ocean.”
Comparison of El Niño Events
| El Niño Event | Peak Anomaly (Niño 3.4) | Year |
|---|---|---|
| 1982-1983 | +2.6°C | 1983 |
| 1997-1998 | +2.4°C | 1998 |
| 2015-2016 | +2.6°C | 2016 |
| Current Event (Projected) | +2.2°C to +3.3°C | 2023-2024 |
Key Takeaways
- El Niño is intensifying and could become the strongest on record.
- Climate change is amplifying ocean heat, fueling extreme weather.
- Global temperatures may reach new highs in 2027 or sooner.
- Impacts vary by region, with drier conditions in Australia and storms elsewhere.
What Experts Are Saying
Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist, noted that the ocean has been absorbing heat for decades, making such anomalies more likely. “It’s perhaps not a surprise, given climate change and how oceans have been gathering heat in the last few decades,” he said. The bureau’s own model has the El Niño peaking at about +3.3°C with the phenomenon staying in place until at least the coming summer.
FAQ
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which affects global weather patterns.
How strong could this El Niño become?
Climate models suggest this El Niño could peak between +2.2°C and above +3°C, potentially making it the strongest on record, surpassing the 1983 event.
What are the expected impacts of a strong El Niño?
Impacts include hotter and drier conditions in parts of Australia, increased storm severity in other regions, and a higher likelihood of record global temperatures.
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