Tactical Voting Could Push Reform UK into Fourth Place, Poll Finds 2026

Tactical voting at the next general election could push Reform UK into fourth place and put Labour within touching distance of a majority, according to a major new poll. The survey of more than 8,000 voters, shared with the Guardian, reveals widespread openness to voting tactically among the electorate.

Poll Findings: Tactical Voting on the Rise

The poll indicates that progressive voters are increasingly willing to set aside party loyalties to achieve broader electoral goals. If tactical voting is widespread, it could significantly alter the political landscape, with Reform UK potentially falling to fourth place and Labour nearing a majority.

Andy Burnham is beginning to attract a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour, motivated by a desire to stop Nigel Farage. This shift suggests that the prime minister’s most successful electoral strategy would be to unite the centre and left bloc of voters, while the right remains split.

Implications for Labour and Other Parties

The findings mark a departure from Keir Starmer’s Labour tactics before the 2024 general election, when the party tried to attract more conservative older voters. Such a shift could unsettle some in Labour, given that a similar strategy was deployed for Ed Miliband’s failed bid in 2015, albeit before Reform’s arrival as a major electoral force.

The poll, released on the eve of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, shows a significant movement of left-leaning voters towards Burnham’s Labour. This will encourage those in the party considering an early election while Reform’s ratings are ebbing and leftwing parties such as the Greens appear to be losing momentum.

Comparing Voter Movements: Left vs. Right

Since the last election, twice as many voters have returned to Labour from the left as from the right. This data underscores the potential effectiveness of a unified centre-left strategy.

Key Takeaways

• Tactical voting could push Reform UK into fourth place.
• Labour could get within touching distance of a majority.
• Andy Burnham is attracting left-leaning voters back to Labour.
• Uniting the centre and left bloc is seen as a successful strategy.
• The poll suggests widespread openness to tactical voting.

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