In regional Victoria, the Nationals are facing a growing threat from One Nation as angry voters consider a protest vote. Victorian Nationals leader Danny O’Brien recently encountered a farmer who said she “liked orange” and that it was “time to shake things up”. This sentiment is echoing across rural electorates, putting pressure on the Nationals to hold their ground.
Why Regional Voters Are Turning to One Nation
Disillusionment with major parties is driving voters in regional Victoria toward One Nation. Issues such as cost of living, energy prices, and a perceived lack of attention from Melbourne-centric politics are fueling anger. Many voters feel that the Nationals, despite being a rural-based party, have not delivered enough for their communities. One Nation, with its populist message, is capitalizing on this discontent.
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The Nationals’ Strategy to Counter One Nation
Danny O’Brien credits the Nationals’ success in the 2022 election—where they won nine lower house seats, their best result since 1943—to candidate selection. By identifying “local champions” with preexisting profiles and attaching the Nationals brand to them, the party has built a loose collection of independents sharing a passion for rural and regional Victoria. O’Brien argues this approach, rather than left-right ideology, is key to countering One Nation.
Data Comparison: Nationals vs. One Nation in Regional Victoria
| Party | Seats in Victorian Lower House | Primary Vote (2022) | Key Support Base |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 9 | ~5.5% | Rural and regional Victoria |
| One Nation | 0 | ~1.5% | Disaffected voters in regional areas |
Key Takeaways for the Next Election
- Voter anger is real: Many in regional Victoria feel ignored by major parties.
- One Nation’s rise: The party is gaining traction as a protest vote, but has yet to win lower house seats.
- Nationals’ local strategy: Emphasizing local candidates may be their best defense.
- Preferences matter: A strong One Nation vote could split the right and benefit Labor.
The Road Ahead
As the next Victorian election approaches, the Nationals must navigate a delicate balance. They need to retain their base while addressing the anger that fuels One Nation. O’Brien’s conversation with the farmer—who ultimately offered to host a Nationals sign—shows that engagement can win back voters. But with One Nation’s profile rising, the battle for regional Victoria is far from over.
FAQ
What is One Nation’s appeal in regional Victoria?
One Nation appeals to voters who feel neglected by major parties, offering a protest option on issues like cost of living and energy.
How many seats do the Nationals hold in Victoria?
The Nationals currently hold nine seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, their best result since 1943.
Can One Nation win lower house seats in Victoria?
While One Nation has not yet won a lower house seat in Victoria, its growing support could split the conservative vote and influence outcomes.
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