Energy Nationalism and Interconnectors: The Next Power Threat 2026

Energy nationalism and interconnectors are emerging as the next power threat to European grids, as recent heatwaves and geopolitical tensions expose the fragility of cross-border electricity trade. The solar eclipse passed without incident, but the summer's extreme weather has highlighted how reliant the UK and its neighbors have become on high-voltage cables that link their power systems. While these interconnectors offer economic and security benefits, their operation is increasingly entangled with political pressures and national priorities, raising questions about the future of energy cooperation.

The Growing Reliance on Interconnectors

Interconnectors are undersea and underground cables that allow electricity to flow between countries. The UK currently has seven links to continental Europe, and on a typical day, these cables supply around 10% of Britain's electricity. On particularly hot, low-wind days, that share can spike dramatically. For instance, on a recent heat dome day, a fifth of the UK's power came from the continent, with French nuclear power alone meeting 11% of demand—more than double the output of all UK windfarms at that time.

The economic logic is compelling: cross-border transfers allow countries to buy cheaper electricity from neighbors, reduce the need for expensive domestic peaking plants, and enable surplus renewable energy to be shared. Over a full year, the UK imports roughly a tenth of its electricity, a figure that is expected to grow as more renewables come online and coal plants retire.

Benefits vs. Risks: A Comparative Look

To understand the trade-offs, consider the following comparison between interconnector reliance and domestic self-sufficiency:

Energy Nationalism and Political Tensions

The politics of interconnectors have rarely looked messier. In June, the National Energy System Operator (Neso) cut off exports to the Netherlands at short notice after the British grid fell below its operational frequency limits for almost two hours. An investigation is still ongoing. More recently, the Financial Times revealed that Neso ordered traders not to export power via four interconnectors during several hours in July to ensure Britain had enough electricity. These actions, while justified by system stability, have sparked accusations of energy nationalism, as neighboring countries worry about the reliability of their own supplies.

Energy nationalism is not new, but it is intensifying. Governments increasingly prioritize domestic security over free trade in electricity. For example, France has occasionally threatened to reduce exports during cold snaps, and Germany's coal phase-out has made its neighbors nervous. The European Union has called for more solidarity, but national interests often prevail.

Key Takeaways for Grid Operators and Policymakers

• Interconnectors are vital for balancing intermittent renewables, but they require robust governance to prevent unilateral actions.
• Energy nationalism can undermine trust and lead to inefficient outcomes, such as emergency purchases at inflated prices.
• Diversifying energy sources, including domestic storage and flexible gas plants, reduces over-reliance on imports.
• Transparent market rules and real-time data sharing are essential to avoid disputes over export restrictions.
• Investment in new interconnectors must be paired with stronger crisis coordination mechanisms.

The Future of Cross-Border Power Trade

As Europe moves toward a decarbonized grid, interconnectors will become even more critical. The European Commission has set a target of 15% cross-border electricity interconnection capacity by 2030. However, achieving that goal requires political will to subordinate short-term national interests to long-term collective benefits. Without such commitment, the next power threat may not be a physical blackout but a political one, as energy nationalism unravels the very networks designed to keep the lights on.

For the UK, the path forward involves balancing the benefits of imports with investments in domestic flexibility. The government has already committed to new nuclear and offshore wind, but it must also reform the wholesale market to discourage speculative trading that can exacerbate shortages. Ultimately, interconnectors are not a silver bullet; they are a tool that must be managed with foresight and cooperation.

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