UK consumer confidence surged in July by the largest margin in nearly three years, driven by the so-called 'Burnham bounce' following Andy Burnham's byelection victory, a strong England run at the World Cup, and sunny weather, according to data firm GfK.
What Is the 'Burnham Bounce'?
The term refers to the spike in consumer sentiment after Labour’s Andy Burnham won a decisive byelection on 18 June, positioning him as the likely next prime minister. GfK’s long-running monthly survey credits this political shift with boosting consumers’ outlook for the economy over the next year by eight points.
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Their view of the economy’s performance over the previous year also improved by ten points. The overall GfK index climbed six points to -17 in July, the highest level since January and the biggest monthly rise since November 2023.
Key Drivers Behind the Boost
World Cup Effect
The feelgood factor from the men’s England football team’s strong performance at the Fifa World Cup reinforced sentiment, as did hopes that the Middle East conflict might stabilise, potentially lowering UK fuel prices.
Sunny Weather
July’s favourable weather also contributed to a wave of optimism, according to Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK. He noted that the sense of a fresh start following the appointment of a new prime minister accounted for much of the bounce.
Comparison of GfK Consumer Confidence Indices
| Indicator | June Score | July Score | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Index | -23 | -17 | +6 |
| Economic Outlook (next 12 months) | -18 | -10 | +8 |
| Economic Performance (past 12 months) | -30 | -20 | +10 |
| Personal Finance Outlook | +2 | +4 | +2 |
Despite the gains, personal finance outlook rose only modestly by two points. Bellamy cautioned that index scores remain well below levels seen a decade ago, before the 2016 Brexit vote, when the headline figure last sat in positive territory.
Key Takeaways
- Consumer confidence rose six points in July to -17, the highest since January.
- The 'Burnham bounce' contributed to an eight-point improvement in economic outlook.
- World Cup excitement and sunny weather added to the positive sentiment.
- Personal finance expectations rose only two points, indicating cautious household spending.
- Sustainable confidence requires consistent government delivery on cost-of-living issues.
FAQ
What is the 'Burnham bounce'?
The 'Burnham bounce' refers to a sharp increase in UK consumer confidence following Andy Burnham's byelection victory in June 2025, which made him the likely next prime minister and sparked optimism about the economy.
How much did UK consumer confidence rise in July?
The GfK overall index rose by six points to -17 in July, the largest monthly increase since November 2023 and the highest level since January 2024.
What other factors boosted UK consumer sentiment?
Alongside the political shift, England's strong World Cup campaign, sunny weather, and hopes for a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict all contributed to the improved mood, according to GfK.
For the 'Burnham bounce' to be sustainable, the refreshed UK government must deliver consistent progress against deep cost-of-living challenges. Consumers will be watching closely as economic policies unfold in the coming months.
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