Victoria Flood Risk: Three Months of Rain Forecast for Australia 2026

Victoria flood risk is escalating as meteorologists forecast up to three months' worth of rain for parts of the state, with severe storms set to drench Australia's south-east from Thursday. The Bureau of Meteorology warns that a slow-moving low-pressure system will combine with a trough to bring widespread rain and thunderstorms, potentially causing flash flooding and river rises.

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Expected Across South-Eastern Australia

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, a trough moving east across South Australia will merge with a low-pressure system in the Great Australian Bight on Thursday. This combination will create a slow-moving low over Victoria, eastern South Australia, and New South Wales, resulting in widespread storms and heavy rainfall. Senior meteorologist Dean Narramore states that most of Victoria can expect rainfall totals of 25-50mm over the coming days, with some areas receiving much more.

Widespread rain is already developing across western and southern Victoria, which is expected to intensify and spread throughout the state on Friday. The heaviest falls are anticipated in Gippsland, as well as the central, eastern, and Otway ranges, where rainfall could exceed 100mm and reach up to 150mm in isolated areas.

Impact on Melbourne and Regional Victoria

Melbourne is also bracing for significant rainfall, with 30 to 50mm expected over the coming days. Narramore describes the city as "quite wet," and residents should prepare for potential localised flooding and disruptions. Flood watches are already in place for parts of Gippsland, north-east and central Victoria, indicating the seriousness of the situation.

The predicted rainfall is equivalent to one to three months' worth of rain in areas that receive 150mm, which could lead to rapid river rises and flash flooding. Communities in low-lying areas should stay alert and follow advice from emergency services.

Comparison of Forecast Rainfall Totals

Key Takeaways for Residents

• Stay informed: Monitor updates from the Bureau of Meteorology and emergency services.
• Prepare for flooding: Clear gutters, avoid low-lying areas, and have an emergency kit ready.
• Travel cautiously: Never drive through floodwaters; check road closures before travelling.
• Secure property: Move valuables to higher ground and secure outdoor items.
• Check on neighbours: Ensure elderly or vulnerable neighbours are aware and prepared.

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