Germany Rearmament: Europe's Fears and the Return of War 2026

Germany's rearmament is stirring well-founded fears across Europe, as the continent grapples with a shifting security landscape. When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the White House earlier this year for a high-stakes meeting with Donald Trump, he invited a Washington-based German researcher little known outside expert circles to a private dinner. Liana Fix had caught his eye with a forthright essay in the journal Foreign Affairs warning of the perils of Germany becoming “Europe’s next hegemon”, whose military dominance may start to scare its neighbours and divide Europe once again.

That concern might seem far-fetched after three decades since the fall of the Berlin Wall, during which a peace-loving reunited Germany let its armed forces wither and rust, prided itself on being a “civil power” and preached a gospel of military restraint. Yet the combination of a sudden surge in German rearmament, growing doubts over the United States’ willingness to remain the guarantor of European security through Nato, and the rise of the far-right nationalist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, currently leading in opinion polls, has reignited old anxieties among Berlin’s neighbours, especially Poland and France.

Fix, a historian and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, has built her argument into a timely and incisive book, Germany Rearmed: The Return of War and the End of Illusions. Among the fallen myths she skewers are not just the delusion that economic interdependence would make Russia a partner, but also the belief that Germany would forever remain a pacifist power.

Germany's Rearmament: A Strategic Shift

Germany's rearmament marks a significant departure from its post-World War II military restraint. In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and pressure from Nato allies, Germany has pledged to increase its defence budget to 2% of GDP and established a €100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr. This shift, while necessary for collective security, has raised concerns about Germany's growing military dominance in Europe.

Critics argue that a rearmed Germany could destabilise the European balance of power, particularly if the AfD—a party with historical revisionist tendencies—gains influence. Poland and France, in particular, view Germany's military expansion with suspicion, fearing a return to historical patterns of German hegemony.

Economic and Political Implications

The economic implications of Germany's rearmament are profound. Increased defence spending could stimulate Germany's defence industry, but it may also divert funds from social programs and infrastructure. Politically, it signals a shift in Germany's role in Europe, from a civilian power to a military one, potentially altering the dynamics within the European Union.

Moreover, the rise of the AfD complicates the picture. The party's nationalist rhetoric and opposition to immigration resonate with a segment of the population, but its stance on military issues is ambiguous. Some fear that a rearmed Germany under AfD influence could pursue an aggressive foreign policy, alienating allies and destabilising the region.

Europe's Well-Founded Fears

Europe's fears are not unfounded. Historically, a powerful Germany has often led to conflict. The memories of World War II are still fresh, and neighbouring countries are wary of any signs of German militarism. While Germany's rearmament is framed as a response to external threats, it inevitably raises questions about its long-term intentions.

Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the US commitment to Nato exacerbates these fears. If the US withdraws its security guarantee, Europe could be left to fend for itself, with Germany as the dominant military power. This scenario could lead to a fragmented Europe, with countries seeking their own security arrangements or aligning with other powers.

Balancing Act for Germany

Germany faces a delicate balancing act. It must reassure its neighbours that its rearmament is purely defensive and within the Nato framework. Transparency and close coordination with allies are essential to mitigate fears. Additionally, Germany must address the rise of the AfD and ensure that its military buildup does not fuel nationalist sentiments.

Ultimately, Germany's rearmament is a double-edged sword. It is necessary to counter Russian aggression, but it also risks alienating allies and destabilising Europe. The key lies in maintaining a strong commitment to European integration and collective security.

Key Takeaways

• Germany's rearmament is a response to Russian aggression and US uncertainty, but it raises fears of German hegemony.
• Poland and France are particularly concerned about Germany's military expansion and the rise of the AfD.
• Economic and political implications include increased defence spending and a shift in Germany's role in Europe.
• Germany must balance its security needs with reassurance to allies to prevent division.

Comparison: Germany's Military Spending vs. Other European Countries

FAQ