Andy Burnham's Devolution Pledge: Why It's Tricky to Deliver 2026

Andy Burnham's devolution pledge to transfer power from Westminster to every postcode is a bold vision, but delivering it will be tricky. The UK's fiscal centralization and complex governance structure present significant hurdles. This article examines the key challenges and potential paths forward.

The Scale of the Devolution Challenge

Burnham's promise, made on the road to Downing Street, aims to reshape how England is governed. However, the UK remains one of the most fiscally centralized countries in the developed world. According to the Centre for Cities, only 5% of tax revenue stays with local authorities, compared to 14% in France and 22% in Japan.

This centralization has led to a 'begging-bowl culture' under successive Conservative governments, with dozens of ringfenced funding pots. The complexity of the current system makes meaningful devolution a daunting task.

Income Tax Devolution: A Good Idea in Principle

Burnham's proposal to hand mayors a share of income tax is widely supported by economists. It could help tackle Britain's deep regional inequalities. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that between 6% and 9% of local income tax revenues would fully replace current central government grants.

However, implementation will take time, and there are wrinkles to iron out. The autumn budget will be a critical moment for filling in the details.

Comparing Fiscal Devolution Across Countries

This table illustrates the UK's extreme centralization. To match France, the UK would need to nearly triple local tax retention.

Key Takeaways from Burnham's Devolution Plan

• Devolution is a complex, long-term project requiring careful planning.
• Income tax devolution could empower regions but needs a robust framework.
• Replacing central grants with local tax revenue is feasible but requires time.
• Political will and cross-party support are essential for success.

Potential Roadblocks and Solutions

One major roadblock is the resistance from Whitehall departments that fear losing control. Another is the varying capacities of mayoral authorities to manage new fiscal powers. To overcome these, the government must invest in local administrative capabilities and ensure transparent accountability.

Furthermore, the devolution of income tax must be designed to avoid exacerbating regional disparities. Wealthier areas could generate more revenue, leaving poorer regions worse off. A redistribution mechanism may be necessary.

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