Victorian Labor's Union Trust Crisis Threatens Election Campaign 2026

Victorian Labor's election campaign is facing a union trust crisis as more unions withdraw support, with senior party sources warning that 'trust has been broken' between the government and its traditional union base.

Premier Ben Carroll was reportedly at a McDonald's when he learned that a major union had decided to pull funds from his campaign and declared him a lost hope. The timing underscores the suddenness of the backlash.

As Carroll travels on a red bus with the slogan 'fighting for working people', another union has called him a liar who 'chosen not to show up for workers'. The contrast between the campaign imagery and the union revolt is stark.

Why Unions Are Abandoning Victorian Labor

Multiple Labor sources have sounded the alarm after a messy week in which a rump of the party's union base abandoned it. One senior Labor source, speaking anonymously, said: 'Trust has been broken. Unions don't believe this government has been focused on working people because they haven't been.'

The dissatisfaction appears to stem from a perception that the government has drifted from its working-class roots. Unions are now actively withdrawing financial support and refusing to campaign for Labor candidates.

On Friday, as members of other unions confirmed they wouldn't be campaigning for Labor, the Australia Manufacturing Workers' Union (AMWU) issued a call for solidarity. The AMWU's Victorian secretary, Tony Mavromatis, said any unionists thinking workers would be better off under the Coalition or One Nation were 'mad'.

'If the mop does flop that way, I will look them in the eye and say, "Well this is what you wanted,"' Mavromatis said. His comment highlights the frustration within parts of the union movement, even as some unions distance themselves from Labor.

The Impact on Labor's Campaign

Labor strategists are concerned that some unions downing tools could hurt the party's ground game. Unions traditionally provide volunteers, funding, and grassroots mobilisation that are crucial in tight election contests.

The loss of union support could not come at a worse time for Carroll, who is already facing challenges in defining his leadership. As we reported in Ben Carroll's Victorian Labor challenge: Can he escape Allan's shadow?, the new premier has struggled to emerge from the shadow of his predecessor.

Carroll has been trying to project a relaxed and positive front on the campaign trail, but the union revolt threatens to undermine that message. The premier's bus slogan 'fighting for working people' now rings hollow to some union leaders.

What This Means for the Election

The union backlash is a significant blow to Labor's election prospects. Unions are a key part of the party's base, and their withdrawal could depress turnout and volunteer numbers.

Moreover, the public nature of the dispute could damage Labor's credibility with working-class voters. If unions are saying Labor has abandoned workers, that message may resonate with voters who feel the same way.

The situation is fluid, and more unions could follow suit. Labor will need to repair its relationship with the union movement quickly if it hopes to avoid further defections.

Union Demands and Labor's Response

Unions are demanding that Labor recommit to workers' interests. They want to see concrete policies that improve wages and conditions, not just rhetoric.

The government has yet to announce any specific measures to address the unions' concerns. This silence may further inflame tensions.

As we noted in Socialist teachers target Victorian Labor MPs in state election, discontent within traditionally Labor-aligned groups is not limited to blue-collar unions. Teachers and other public sector workers have also expressed frustration.

The broader context is a Victorian Labor government that has faced a series of controversies. From the Victorian construction royal commission to abortion access on the election agenda, the party has been buffeted by issues that have distracted from its core message.

What to Watch Next

All eyes are on whether other unions will join the revolt. The AMWU's call for solidarity suggests that some unions are trying to hold the line, but others may see political advantage in distancing themselves from an unpopular government.

Labor's response will be critical. The party needs to show unions and voters that it is listening and willing to act. As we discussed in Ben Carroll's challenge: Saving Victorian Labor from unpopularity, the premier faces an uphill battle to reconnect with the electorate.

One possible avenue is to focus on policies that directly benefit workers, such as new family violence offences or scrapping the secret public transport levy. But these may not be enough to win back union trust.

The union revolt also has implications for federal Labor, as Australian unions turn on Labor ahead of Victorian election. If the Victorian experience is any guide, the federal party could face similar challenges.

Ultimately, the union trust crisis is a test of Labor's ability to manage its internal coalition. As new Victorian Premier Ben Carroll: A fresh start for Labor suggested, Carroll had an opportunity to reset the relationship with unions. That opportunity now appears to be slipping away.

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