Even if US democracy can be salvaged from Trump, Europe is moving on. That is the stark conclusion from a recent opinion piece that examines the fragility of American democratic institutions and the widening rift with its European allies.
When Joe Biden entered the White House in 2021, it was possible to believe that Donald Trump’s reign had been an aberration. “America is back. The transatlantic alliance is back,” the new president declared to relieved European leaders shortly after winning the 2020 race. It was true, but not for long.
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Why Trump’s Defeat Didn’t Heal US Democracy
Trump’s defeat proved that US democracy was mechanically operational, not culturally robust. His supporters tried violent subversion to prevent the inauguration of a successor. A second term should have been unthinkable.
Republicans who failed to denounce the 6 January insurrection should have been unelectable. Instead, within four years, US voters reinstated the champion of a failed coup against their cherished constitution as commander-in-chief. That is worth remembering in any analysis of midterm congressional elections.
Midterm Elections: A Test of Democratic Resilience
Voting was under way at the time of writing. Opinion polls in the run-up favoured Democrats. But it is a measure of how grievously Trump has imperilled democracy that peaceful completion of that process, followed by a fair count, cannot be anticipated with confidence.
The most that can be said is that the elections were not aborted, nor did they look blatantly rigged on the eve of polling, which gives hope that the balloting process can still function in theory. That is no protection against a president with a record of denying results that displease him and a party that has repeatedly shown willingness to challenge electoral outcomes.
- Trump’s 2024 win shows that US democracy is culturally fragile, not just mechanically sound.
- Europe is recalibrating its relationship with Washington, moving beyond reliance on US leadership.
- Midterm elections are a litmus test for whether democratic norms can hold under pressure.
- Transatlantic trust has eroded, with Europe seeking greater strategic autonomy.
- Global stability hinges on whether the US can restore credibility as a reliable partner.
Europe’s Strategic Shift Away from Washington
European leaders are no longer waiting for the US to get its democratic house in order. The opinion piece argues that Europe is moving on, driven by a recognition that American democracy may not be salvageable in the near term.
This shift is visible in increased European defence spending, efforts to strengthen the EU’s foreign policy apparatus, and a growing willingness to engage with China and other powers independently. The transatlantic alliance, once the cornerstone of global order, is being redefined.
What Europe Is Doing Differently
Europe is investing in military capabilities, reducing dependence on US security guarantees. It is also pursuing trade deals and diplomatic initiatives that prioritise European interests over Atlantic solidarity.
The continent is preparing for a world where the US may be an unreliable partner, regardless of who sits in the White House.
Implications for Global Stability
The erosion of US democratic credibility has consequences beyond Europe. Authoritarian powers are emboldened, multilateral institutions are weakened, and the post-war liberal order is under strain.
If the US cannot guarantee a peaceful transfer of power, its moral authority to promote democracy abroad diminishes. Europe’s pivot is a rational response to this new reality.
| Indicator | Before Trump (2021) | After Trump (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Transatlantic trust | High | Low |
| European defence spending | Moderate | Increasing |
| US democracy rating | Stable | Fragile |
| EU strategic autonomy | Limited | Growing |
What to Watch Next
The midterm results will be a key signal. If the elections proceed peacefully and results are accepted, it may offer a glimmer of hope. But Europe is unlikely to reverse its strategic shift.
The long-term question is whether the US can rebuild its democratic culture and restore trust with allies. For now, Europe is hedging its bets. The background to this story is set out in Business: latest articles.
FAQ
Why is Europe moving on from US democracy concerns?
Europe is moving on because it recognises that US democracy may not be reliably stable, especially after Trump’s return. The EU is seeking greater strategic autonomy to protect its interests regardless of US political shifts.
What does the 6 January insurrection have to do with current US democracy?
The insurrection showed that US democracy is culturally fragile. The fact that Trump was re-elected despite attempting to overturn the 2020 election signals that democratic norms are not deeply entrenched.
How do midterm elections affect US democracy?
Midterms are a test of whether the electoral process can function peacefully and fairly. If results are disputed or violence occurs, it would further erode confidence in US democratic institutions.
What are the implications for transatlantic relations?
Transatlantic trust has been damaged. Europe is increasing defence spending and pursuing independent foreign policies, reducing reliance on the US as a stable partner.
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