Jensen Huang: China's Advanced Lithography Is Just Around the Corner 2026

Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, believes that China will develop its own advanced lithography equipment by 2030, a milestone that could significantly impact the global AI chip industry. In a recent interview on The All-In Podcast, Huang confidently stated that this achievement is "just around the corner," underscoring the rapid pace of China's technological advancement.

Huang's comments come amid growing tensions between the US and China over semiconductor technology. His optimism about China's capabilities is not new, but it carries weight given Nvidia's position at the forefront of AI computing.

Why Advanced Lithography Matters for AI Chips

Lithography is the process of etching circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, and it's a critical step in chip manufacturing. Advanced lithography, particularly extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, enables the production of cutting-edge chips with smaller nanometer nodes, which are essential for high-performance AI processors.

Currently, the Netherlands' ASML dominates the EUV lithography market, and export controls have prevented China from accessing this technology. If China succeeds in developing its own advanced lithography tools, it could reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers and accelerate its AI ambitions.

China's Progress in Lithography

China has been investing heavily in domestic lithography research. In July, The Information reported that a Chinese company had begun mass-producing its own deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion lithography machines, a first for the country. While DUV is less advanced than EUV, it represents a significant step forward.

Additionally, two state-backed projects are reportedly working on developing EUV lithography capable of producing 5nm chips or smaller. These efforts suggest that China is systematically building its capabilities, and Huang's prediction may be more realistic than it seems.

The Impact on Nvidia and the AI Industry

Nvidia is the leading supplier of AI chips, and its GPUs are widely used in data centers for training and inference. If China develops its own advanced lithography, it could produce competitive AI chips domestically, potentially reducing its dependence on Nvidia and other foreign suppliers.

However, this scenario also presents opportunities. As China's chip industry grows, so does the market for AI hardware and software. Nvidia could continue to benefit from selling its chips to Chinese companies, even as local alternatives emerge.

• Huang predicts China will have advanced lithography by 2030, calling it "just around the corner."
• China has already begun mass-producing DUV lithography machines, a key step toward EUV.
• Two state-backed projects are working on EUV lithography for 5nm chips.
• Success would reduce China's reliance on foreign chipmaking equipment and boost its AI self-sufficiency.
• Nvidia could face increased competition but also new opportunities in China.

What This Means for the Global Chip Supply Chain

The global semiconductor supply chain is highly interconnected, and any shift in China's capabilities could have ripple effects. If China becomes self-sufficient in advanced lithography, it could alter the balance of power in the tech industry.

For now, ASML remains the sole supplier of EUV machines, and export restrictions continue to limit China's access. But Huang's comments serve as a reminder that technological leadership is not static, and China is determined to catch up.

Expert Perspectives and Industry Reactions

Huang's prediction has sparked discussions among industry experts. Some believe China's progress is slower than expected, citing technical hurdles and the complexity of EUV lithography. Others argue that China's focused investment and large talent pool could accelerate development.

Regardless of the timeline, the consensus is that China's push for semiconductor self-sufficiency is a long-term trend that will shape the industry for years to come.

Nvidia's Strategy in China

Nvidia has been navigating US export controls by developing alternative chips for the Chinese market. The company remains committed to serving Chinese customers while complying with regulations. Huang's comments may also be a signal that Nvidia is preparing for a more competitive landscape. The background to this story is set out in Business: latest articles.

What to Watch Next

The key milestones to monitor include China's progress in EUV lithography, any breakthroughs in producing 5nm chips, and how the US responds with further export controls. Additionally, Nvidia's ability to maintain its market share in China will be closely watched. A related thread runs through Meta's Flatter Structure Reversal: Middle Managers Return.

As the AI race intensifies, the development of advanced lithography in China will be a critical factor in determining the future of computing. Earlier coverage in Hoba Meteorite: Why a 60-Ton Space Rock Left No Crater shows how the argument developed. A closer look at the same subject appears in Jensen Huang: China's Advanced Lithography Is Just Around the Corner.