Oil price surges above $100 as Bab al-Mandab blockade threatens s 2026

The Bab al-Mandab blockade has pushed the price of Brent crude above $100 per barrel, escalating fears of a supply crisis that could drive oil to $120. This fresh front in the Middle East crisis threatens one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints.

What is the Bab al-Mandab Strait?

The Bab al-Mandab is a narrow waterway between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It serves as a vital route for Gulf oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. In 2024, approximately 4.1 million barrels of crude and refined products passed through daily—about 5% of global oil supplies.

How the Houthi Threat Escalated

Yemen’s Houthi militias, aligned with Iran, sent warnings to shipping companies on Monday, threatening to target vessels loading or unloading at Saudi ports. The group controls Yemen’s north-western territory along the Bab al-Mandab, giving it direct leverage over this strategic passage. By Thursday, several ships had altered course, triggering a 13% spike in Brent crude prices.

Comparison: Bab al-Mandab vs Strait of Hormuz

While the Strait of Hormuz once carried 20% of global oil, ongoing tensions have shifted traffic toward the Bab al-Mandab. However, any disruption there now poses a compounding risk. According to Jorge León of Rystad Energy, “If Hormuz remains largely closed and the Houthi threat intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial.”

Key Takeaways

• The Bab al-Mandab blockade is a direct result of the broader Middle East crisis involving Iran, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia.
• Oil prices have breached $100 for the first time in months, with analysts warning of a surge to $120.
• Shipping companies are rerouting vessels, potentially disrupting global energy markets.
• Geopolitical risk remains elevated, affecting not just oil but also refined products and LNG.

FAQ

This unfolding situation underscores the fragile nature of global energy supply chains. Investors and policymakers alike are watching for further developments that could push oil toward the $120 mark. Stay informed on geopolitical risk and oil market trends with our ongoing coverage.