SpaceX IPO Valuation: Analysts Say It's Worth Less Than Half 2026

SpaceX IPO valuation is at the center of a fierce debate as the company prepares for what could be the largest public offering in history. The rocket and satellite company aims to raise $75 billion at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation when it lists on June 12, 2026, under the ticker SPCX. But financial analysts are pushing back hard, arguing the company is worth less than half that figure.

What SpaceX Is Planning for Its Record-Breaking IPO

SpaceX has confirmed it will go public on June 12, 2026, under the symbol SPCX. The company is seeking to raise $75 billion, which would make it the biggest initial public offering ever completed.

The targeted $1.75 trillion valuation would instantly place SpaceX among the most valuable companies in the world. Management has clearly set ambitious expectations for what public markets will pay for the business.

Morningstar's Verdict: Significantly Overvalued

Morningstar, the well-known financial research firm, has completed an analysis of SpaceX's financial statements and reached a striking conclusion. In their own words, they believe the company has been "significantly overvalued" and that investors will have a chance to buy shares at more attractive levels after the IPO.

In practical terms, Morningstar is advising investors to skip the IPO and wait. Their models predict the stock will fall in the first days of trading on Wall Street.

How Big Is the Gap Between Hype and Fundamentals?

Morningstar's discounted cash flow analysis values SpaceX at $780 billion. That is 48% below the private market valuation of $1.5 trillion and 44.5% below the $1.75 trillion figure the company itself is targeting.

The gap matters because IPO pricing is often driven by narrative and demand rather than pure fundamentals. When a company is as famous as SpaceX, that gap can become very wide before reality sets in.

Key Takeaways for Investors Watching the SpaceX IPO

• SpaceX plans to list on June 12, 2026, under ticker SPCX.
• The company is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and a $75 billion raise.
• Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion using discounted cash flow analysis.
• Analysts recommend waiting for post-IPO price drops before buying.
• The gap between hype and fundamentals is unusually large even for a mega-cap IPO.

Why the Valuation Dispute Matters Beyond SpaceX

This is not just a story about one company. A record-breaking IPO of this size will test how public markets price ambitious, capital-intensive businesses in the space and satellite sector.

If Morningstar is right and shares fall after listing, it could cool investor appetite for other highly anticipated offerings expected this year. If the market proves the analysts wrong, it would signal that investors are willing to pay premium prices for category leaders regardless of traditional valuation metrics. The background to this story is set out in Anthropic Files for US IPO With $1.5 Trillion Valuation. A related thread runs through Anthropic IPO: Wall Street Eyes $2 Trillion Valuation Debut. Earlier coverage in China's AI Competition Threatens Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Valuation shows how the argument developed.

What to Watch Next

Investors should watch the final IPO price range when it is published, since that will reveal how much of the company's target valuation underwriters believe the market will accept. Early trading volume and price action on June 12 will also be critical signals. A closer look at the same subject appears in SpaceX Beats Revenue Expectations in First Post-IPO Earnings. Anyone following the wider picture can start with SpaceX IPO: 4,000 Workers Turn Millionaires, Musk a Billionaire. The same theme surfaces in Gina Rinehart Loses A$700m as SpaceX Stock Crashes Post-IPO, which takes a different angle.

Any updates to SpaceX's revenue and cash flow disclosures before the listing will give analysts like Morningstar more data to refine their models. For now, the debate between a $780 billion valuation and a $1.75 trillion target remains unresolved. Context on how this played out before sits in Gina Rinehart Loses A$700m on SpaceX IPO as Stock Dips. A companion piece, Gina Rinehart SpaceX IPO Profit Wiped Out as Stock Price Dips, approaches the same subject from another angle.