Super El Niño: A Risk Multiplier for Global Climate Disasters 2026

Super El Niño, the strongest in at least 1,000 years, is looming over Cop31 climate talks as a risk multiplier that exacerbates global disasters. This naturally recurring phenomenon, where the eastern Pacific heats up every few years, is now supercharged by climate change, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

The current El Niño has already warped global weather patterns, fueling huge wildfires and crop failures in Indonesia, coastal inundation in the US, severe drought in Sudan, and severe flooding in Ecuador and Somalia. These events underscore the urgent need for action at the UN climate summit in Turkey.

What Is Super El Niño and Why Is It So Dangerous?

El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It occurs every few years and has temporary but global implications for weather. The current event is described as the strongest in at least 1,000 years, earning the moniker super El Niño.

According to Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, “We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier.” This means that El Niño doesn't just add a single hazard; it amplifies existing vulnerabilities, making droughts drier, floods wetter, and storms more intense.

How Super El Niño Fuels Disasters Worldwide

The impacts are already being felt across the globe. In Indonesia, El Niño contributed to massive wildfires and crop failures. In the United States, coastal inundation has been exacerbated. Sudan is experiencing severe drought, while Ecuador and Somalia are grappling with severe flooding.

These events are not isolated; they are interconnected through atmospheric teleconnections—changes in weather patterns that ripple across the planet. The result is a cascade of disasters that stretch humanitarian resources and threaten food and water security.

• Wildfires and crop failures in Indonesia due to prolonged dry conditions.
• Coastal inundation in the US, driven by higher sea levels and storm surges.
• Severe drought in Sudan, worsening food insecurity.
• Severe flooding in Ecuador and Somalia, displacing communities.
• Drought emergency in the Marshall Islands, threatening water supplies.

The Human Toll: Marshall Islands Declares State of Emergency

The Marshall Islands, a small Pacific atoll nation, relies heavily on rainfall for its water. A devastating drought has forced the government to declare a state of emergency. Kathy Jetn̄il-Kijiner, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, described the situation: “It’s a compounding crisis, we are trying to prepare but the drought has already hit and it’s on top of having to deal with rising seas that threaten our homes and drinking water.”

This compounding crisis illustrates how El Niño interacts with long-term climate change impacts, leaving vulnerable countries to scramble for resources. The Marshall Islands' plight is a stark reminder that climate disasters are not future hypotheticals—they are happening now.

Cop31: Urgent Talks on Climate Funding

The Cop31 summit in Turkey is focused on wrangling over climate funding for vulnerable countries. Last year, wealthy countries agreed to triple adaptation finance to poorer countries by 2025, but the super El Niño adds urgency to these negotiations. Developing nations are calling for more support to cope with the escalating impacts.

The talks are also addressing the broader question of how to finance loss and damage, a mechanism to help countries recover from climate disasters. With El Niño acting as a risk multiplier, the stakes are higher than ever.

Comparing El Niño Impacts: Then and Now

While El Niño is a natural phenomenon, climate change is making its impacts more severe. The table below contrasts historical El Niño events with the current super El Niño.

What to Watch Next

As Cop31 continues, negotiators must grapple with the reality that El Niño is not a one-off event. It will return, and with climate change, each occurrence could be more severe. The outcomes of these talks will determine how well vulnerable countries can prepare for and respond to future super El Niños.

For a deeper understanding of how climate change amplifies geological disasters, see our analysis on climate change and geological disasters: the cryosphere warning. This piece explains how warming temperatures destabilize frozen landscapes, triggering landslides and other hazards.

Meanwhile, the intersection of climate and technology is also a concern. AI disasters: why unannounced risks demand global action explores how unanticipated risks from artificial intelligence require proactive governance, much like climate risks.

Recent events in South Asia highlight the cascading effects of climate-linked disasters. The Nepal-Tibet floods show urgent need for regional cooperation and early warning systems, as melting glaciers and extreme rainfall wreak havoc.

Similarly, the Nepal and Tibet floods serve as a stark warning for future climate disasters, underscoring the importance of adaptation finance and disaster preparedness. The background to this story is set out in El Niño Could Be Strongest on Record: Experts Warn of Global Impa. A related thread runs through El Niño 2024: Strongest on Record Could Reshape Global Climate.

These examples illustrate that the super El Niño is not an isolated threat but part of a larger pattern of compounding climate risks. As we watch Cop31 unfold, the world must commit to robust action to protect the most vulnerable. Earlier coverage in Godzilla El Niño Causes Extreme Weather Worldwide shows how the argument developed. A closer look at the same subject appears in El Niño: Causes, Global Impacts, and Risk Reduction.