Tropics Last to Benefit from Net Zero Emissions, Study Finds 2026

New research reveals that the tropics will be among the last places to benefit from net zero emissions, highlighting a stark climate inequality that persists even after global carbon neutrality is achieved.

The study, led by Dr. Andrew King and colleagues at the University of Melbourne, found that temperatures in tropical regions have risen more significantly relative to historic levels than in higher latitudes, including wealthier countries in Europe and North America. This disparity is not reversed when global emissions reach net zero—the implicit goal of the 2015 Paris agreement—and could take "many decades to begin to reverse" if carbon dioxide is drawn from the atmosphere under a net-negative emissions plan.

Understanding Climate Inequality and Net Zero Emissions

The research, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, used three sets of computer modelling experiments to project temperature changes under net zero emissions scenarios. The results were overlaid with countries' gross domestic product, revealing a troubling pattern: wealthier nations at higher latitudes are likely to experience the benefits of reduced warming sooner, while tropical regions—often home to some of the world's poorest populations—will continue to suffer from elevated temperatures for decades.

"If we follow a path that is close to net zero, then the inequality we see in present day warming persists indefinitely," King said. This means that even if the global community successfully cuts greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, the tropics will remain disproportionately warmer compared to pre-industrial levels.

The Unequal Impact on the World's Poorest

The climate crisis has long been recognized as having an unequal impact on the world's poorest people. This new study underscores that reality, showing that the benefits of climate action will not be distributed evenly. Tropical regions, which include parts of Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia, are already experiencing more severe heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather events. These areas often lack the resources to adapt to such changes, making them more vulnerable to food insecurity, water scarcity, and displacement.

The research coincided with a report from the UN's refugee agency, which highlighted how the climate crisis is increasing the risk of people becoming stateless. As sea levels rise and extreme weather events become more frequent, many communities in tropical regions could be forced to migrate, potentially losing their nationality and legal rights.

Comparing Warming Trends: Tropics vs. Higher Latitudes

To illustrate the disparity, consider the following comparison based on the study's findings:

While these figures are illustrative, they reflect the core finding: tropical regions will continue to experience higher temperatures even after net zero is achieved, and the inequality may only begin to reverse if net-negative emissions are pursued.

Key Takeaways for Global Climate Policy

• Net zero is not enough to reverse climate inequality; tropical regions will remain hotter for decades.
• Wealthier nations at higher latitudes will benefit sooner from emission reductions.
• Net-negative emissions may be necessary to eventually reduce tropical warming, but the process is slow.
• Climate justice requires targeted support for vulnerable tropical communities.
• Statelessness risk is growing as climate impacts displace people in tropical regions.

Implications for the Paris Agreement and Beyond

The 2015 Paris agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. However, this study suggests that even achieving net zero emissions—a key goal of the agreement—will not immediately alleviate the disproportionate warming in the tropics. Policymakers must therefore consider additional measures, such as adaptation funding and technology transfer, to support tropical nations.

Moreover, the concept of "net-negative emissions"—where more carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere than emitted—could eventually help reverse the inequality, but it would take many decades. This underscores the need for urgent and sustained action, as well as a focus on equity in climate solutions.

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