Matt Canavan to Run for Lower House Seat in Queensland Showdown 2026

Nationals leader Matt Canavan will run for the lower house seat of Capricornia in Queensland at the next federal election, a move that could set up a high-profile contest with One Nation's James Ashby. The announcement follows the retirement of sitting MP Michelle Landry and signals a major battle for regional seats.

Canavan, currently a senator, told the Courier Mail he wants to keep the seat to help change the government. "I don't think you'll be surprised by this announcement but I'm not going to die wondering," he said. "I may very well die politically, but I'm not going to die wondering. I'll give it my all."

Why Matt Canavan's Move Matters

Canavan's decision to switch to the lower house is significant because it puts him directly in the fray of a seat that the Nationals have held but face increasing pressure from One Nation. The retirement of Michelle Landry, based in Rockhampton, opened the door for a new candidate, and Canavan's high profile ensures the contest will draw national attention.

The move also raises questions about the future of the Nationals leadership. Canavan will need to win the seat to remain in parliament, and a loss could end his political career. His comment about dying politically underscores the risk he is taking.

The One Nation Factor

One Nation's James Ashby, Pauline Hanson's chief of staff, is reportedly considering running in Capricornia. If he does, the contest will be a proxy battle between the Coalition and One Nation over regional voters. One Nation has been gaining ground in Queensland, and the Nationals are keen to push back.

Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie said One Nation should not be fighting to win Coalition-held seats if the party is serious about taking on Labor. "If One Nation is really serious about firing the liar, then they need to start running in Labor party seats instead of running against someone like Matt Canavan," she told Nine's Today show. "[I'm] not afraid of a fight – I want to save our country, and that means changing the prime minister, and that means taking Labor party seats."

What This Means for Regional Queensland

Capricornia covers a vast area of central Queensland, including Rockhampton and surrounding regions. The electorate has a strong resources and agricultural base, and both the Nationals and One Nation will be appealing to those voters. Canavan, a former resources minister, has strong ties to the mining sector and will likely emphasize his record on resources and regional development.

The contest will also test the Coalition's ability to hold onto its traditional base amid challenges from right-wing populist parties. One Nation has been polling well in some regional areas, and the Nationals are hoping Canavan's profile can stem the tide.

• Matt Canavan is switching from the Senate to run for the lower house seat of Capricornia.
• The move follows the retirement of sitting MP Michelle Landry.
• One Nation's James Ashby may contest the seat, setting up a showdown.
• Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie criticized One Nation for targeting Coalition seats.
• The contest will be a key test of regional support for both parties.

Key Players and Seats at a Glance

Analysis: A High-Stakes Gamble

Canavan's move is a gamble. By leaving the Senate, he gives up a safe seat for a contested one. But it also positions him as a potential future leader of the Nationals in the lower house, where leadership is decided. If he wins, he could be a powerful voice for regional Queensland. If he loses, his political career could be over.

The contest also highlights the broader challenge for the Coalition: managing the threat from One Nation while trying to win back government. McKenzie's comments suggest the Nationals are frustrated that One Nation is targeting them rather than Labor. But One Nation's strategy is to win seats wherever it can, and Coalition-held seats are often more winnable than Labor ones in regional areas.

What to Watch Next

Watch for official announcements from One Nation about James Ashby's candidacy. Also watch for how the Nationals campaign in Capricornia and whether Canavan's high profile helps or hurts. The result will be a bellwether for regional sentiment at the next election.

The contest also comes amid broader tensions between the Coalition and One Nation. Recently, One Nation's Victoria leader cast doubt on Pauline Hanson's mass, and another One Nation leader admitted to drug use and drink driving. These controversies could affect One Nation's appeal, but the party has shown resilience in the past.

For a deeper look at One Nation's internal dynamics, see how One Nation Victoria leader casts doubt on Hanson mass. This could influence how voters perceive the party's stability. The background to this story is set out in One Nation Threatens Nationals in Regional Victoria. A related thread runs through One Nation Queensland Deregistration Risk as Inflation Eases.

Another recent controversy involves One Nation leader Warren Pickering admitting to drug use and drink driving. Such revelations may impact the party's credibility in regional contests like Capricornia. Earlier coverage in One Nation Victoria Campaign: Treaty Abolition and Pepper Spray shows how the argument developed. A closer look at the same subject appears in Australia: latest articles.

Finally, One Nation threatens Nationals in regional Victoria, showing the party's broader strategy of challenging the Coalition in its heartland. This pattern is likely to repeat in Queensland, making Canavan's race a key battleground. Anyone following the wider picture can start with One Nation Losing Steam in Victoria? New Poll Points to Shift. The same theme surfaces in Victoria 2026 Election: What Voters Need to Know, which takes a different angle.