Muslim Votes Matter Softens Anti-Labor Stance for Victorian Election 2026

Muslim Votes Matter (MVM) has softened its anti-Labor stance ahead of the Victorian election, aiming to defeat One Nation in at-risk seats. The grassroots advocacy group will direct supporters to vote for Labor ahead of Pauline Hanson's party in all lower house electorates, marking a strategic shift from its approach at the 2025 federal election.

Why MVM Changed Its Approach

At last year's federal election, MVM endorsed Greens and independent candidates to punish Labor over its handling of Israel's war in Gaza. However, national spokesperson Ghaith Krayem said "circumstances have changed" ahead of the state election on 28 November. The group now fears that a hard anti-Labor campaign could inadvertently benefit One Nation, a party they view as more detrimental to their community's interests.

Krayem stated, "As a community, we certainly don't want to increase One Nation's influence." This pragmatic shift reflects a broader strategy to prevent the far-right from gaining ground in key suburban seats.

Where MVM Will Focus Its Efforts

MVM plans to have volunteers on the ground in the seats of Greenvale, in Melbourne's north, and Narre Warren South, in the city's south-east. These are outer suburban electorates that the incumbent government risks losing to One Nation. By directing preferences and providing volunteer support, MVM hopes to bolster Labor's chances in these tight races.

Despite this softer stance, MVM will still not put Labor in the top spot on its how-to-vote cards. Instead, it will continue to favor independents and minor parties, as it did at the federal election. The group's approach is to place Labor ahead of One Nation, but not as the primary recommendation.

Implications for the Victorian Election

The Victorian election, set for 28 November, will see fierce competition in outer suburban seats. MVM's decision to direct preferences to Labor could be pivotal in close contests where every vote counts. The group's network of volunteers and community influence may help swing outcomes in Greenvale and Narre Warren South.

This move also signals a maturing of MVM's political strategy, balancing ideological grievances with practical electoral considerations. By prioritizing the defeat of One Nation, MVM is aligning with broader progressive forces to prevent a right-wing surge.

What to Watch Next

Observers should watch how MVM's volunteers operate in the targeted seats and whether their efforts translate into measurable support for Labor. The group's how-to-vote cards will be closely scrutinized to see the exact ordering of preferences. Additionally, any backlash from within MVM's base over the softened stance could affect its campaign effectiveness.

The election outcome will also indicate whether community-led campaigns can effectively counter the influence of One Nation in suburban Australia. As Krayem noted, the risk of inadvertently boosting One Nation was a key factor in this strategic pivot.

FAQ

The strategic shift by MVM underscores the complex dynamics of Australian politics, where community groups must navigate between ideological purity and pragmatic outcomes. As the Victorian election approaches, all eyes will be on these outer suburban battlegrounds.

For a deeper look at how funding patterns influence electoral outcomes, see our analysis of how Labor seats get 92% of $248M community grants funding, which raises questions about resource allocation in politics.

Meanwhile, the debate over political responsibility continues, as shown by the recent classification of anti-weapons vandalism as terrorism in Australia, highlighting how activism can sometimes cross legal boundaries.

On the international stage, the controversy surrounding Seb Coe and London's 2029 bid shows how leaders manage crises, a skill also relevant to political campaigns.

Closer to home, the Alaska Senate race with three Dan Sullivans offers a fascinating case study in name recognition and voter confusion.

Finally, understanding how votes are counted and when results are expected in the 2026 midterms can provide context for the importance of every preference in tight races like those in Victoria.