Diesel prices across Australia could surge beyond $3 a litre if Donald Trump cuts US diesel exports amid floundering negotiations with Iran. Fuel costs have already risen to levels not seen since early April, adding to inflation risks and making another hike in interest rates all but certain.
Current Diesel Prices in Australian Capital Cities
Canberra is recording the highest prices out of the capital cities, with diesel at 298.7c per litre and unleaded at 250c per litre on Thursday. Other cities’ prices were not far behind. Prices have risen nearly 40c a litre since the start of the month, adding $22 to the cost of filling up a vehicle with a 55-litre tank.
| City | Diesel Price (c/L) | Unleaded Price (c/L) |
|---|---|---|
| Canberra | 298.7 | 250.0 |
| Sydney | 295.2 | 247.5 |
| Melbourne | 294.8 | 246.9 |
| Brisbane | 296.1 | 248.3 |
| Perth | 293.5 | 245.7 |
Why Diesel Prices Are Rising
Service stations have passed on steady increases from international refineries, which have struggled to secure cheap oil as ongoing hostilities in the Middle East prevent supply reaching global markets. The Brent crude oil benchmark price has held above US$100 per barrel for most of the last fortnight, reaching its highest point since May.
Gulf countries’ exports of diesel have fallen to just a quarter of their prewar levels with the ongoing conflict preventing transit of fuel tankers through the strait of Hormuz and the smaller Bab al-Mandab chokepoint. Ukrainian attacks have cut off Russian supply, further restricting global oil flow.
Potential Impact of US Export Ban
Shortages would worsen if the Trump administration banned US exports of diesel, which it is actively considering as a measure to suppress local service station prices. Such a move would tighten global supply further and could push Australian diesel prices above $3 a litre.
This would add significant pressure to already strained household budgets and could force the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates again to combat inflation.
Key Takeaways
- Diesel prices in Australia have risen nearly 40c a litre since the start of the month.
- Canberra has the highest diesel price at 298.7c per litre.
- Middle East conflicts and Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply are restricting global oil flow.
- A US diesel export ban could push Australian prices beyond $3 a litre.
- Rising fuel costs add to inflation risks and increase the likelihood of another interest rate hike.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are diesel prices rising in Australia?
Diesel prices are rising due to global supply constraints caused by Middle East conflicts, Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply, and high Brent crude oil prices. Service stations are passing on these increased costs to consumers.
How high could diesel prices go?
If the Trump administration bans US diesel exports, Australian diesel prices could surge beyond $3 a litre. Even without a ban, prices may continue to climb due to ongoing global tensions.
What does this mean for interest rates?
Rising fuel costs contribute to inflation, making another hike in interest rates all but certain as the Reserve Bank of Australia seeks to control price pressures.
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