Restoring UK Health to 2014 Levels Could Boost GDP by 2% 2026

Restoring the deteriorating health of the UK’s population to 2014 levels could boost GDP by 2% and generate a £72bn dividend for public finances, according to a new report by the Health Foundation thinktank. This analysis underscores how population health is a critical economic asset, with healthier workers driving productivity and reducing public spending.

The Economic Case for Health Investment

The Health Foundation’s paper argues that good health enables people to live well for longer and contribute to their communities, building a stronger society. A healthy labour force is the engine that powers the economy, determining participation in employment, work effectiveness, and how long people remain in the labour market. The report calculates that healthy life expectancy fell by two years in the decade to 2022-24, with the UK being one of only five of the world’s 21 richest countries to see such a decline.

Rising Ill Health and Its Costs

Over the same period, the number of working-age people with a long-term health condition increased from 11.7 million to 15.7 million. This rise in ill health adds to NHS spending and disability benefits costs, but the hidden costs include lost tax revenue and economic output when sickness prevents people from working. The modelling suggests that reducing ill health to 2014 levels could increase economic output by £57bn, or 2% of GDP.

Key Data: Health and Economic Impact

Inequalities in Health

The report also points to stark inequalities: people living in the richest 10% of areas can expect as many as 20 more years of good health compared with the poorest 10%. This disparity highlights the need for targeted policy interventions to improve health outcomes across all regions.

Key Takeaways

• Health as an economic asset: Investing in population health yields significant GDP and fiscal returns.
• Urgent need for action: Declining healthy life expectancy threatens economic growth and public finances.
• Focus on working-age health: Reducing long-term conditions in this group is crucial for productivity.
• Address inequalities: Closing the health gap between richest and poorest areas is essential.
• Policy implications: Incoming government must prioritize health to achieve growth in every postcode.

FAQ

David Finch, interim director of health and inequalities at the Health Foundation, emphasized: “Restoring the nation’s working-age health to 2014 levels could unlock £57bn in economic output and provide a £72bn boost to the public finances through stronger tax revenues and reduced spending on social security and the NHS.” He added that improving health is essential to deliver the good growth in every postcode on which the incoming government’s ambitions will depend.