No 10 Gathers Evidence on Public Support for Rejoining the EU 2026

Senior Downing Street officials are gathering evidence on public support for rejoining the EU, reaching out to think tanks and pollsters to gauge voter sentiment. This move signals a potential shift in Labour's stance on Europe, as aides to Andy Burnham explore how a promise to rejoin would be received by the public. The discussions come amid growing momentum to include such a pledge in the next Labour manifesto, but also raise concerns about electoral risks.

Why Downing Street Is Testing Public Opinion on EU Rejoining

Downing Street's outreach to think tanks and pollsters is part of a broader effort to understand whether the UK public would back a return to the EU. According to sources, aides to Andy Burnham have been talking to EU experts across various organisations about how voters would view a commitment to rejoin. This evidence-gathering reflects a desire to base policy on data rather than assumption.

Some in No 10 are keen to promise that Labour would at least negotiate over re-entry to the bloc, a position Burnham has said he wants to see happen "in his lifetime." However, others are nervous that such a promise could revive the flagging political fortunes of Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader. The internal debate highlights the delicate balance between appealing to pro-EU voters and avoiding a backlash that could benefit populist rivals.

Andy Burnham's Evolving Stance on Brexit and EU Relations

Andy Burnham used his first conference speech as Labour leader to announce a review of the options for Britain's relationship with Europe, and later added that these options should include rejoining entirely. This marks a significant shift from the position of his predecessor, Keir Starmer, who had ruled out rejoining.

In an interview on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Burnham said: "We could stay as we are. That's definitely an option." He also indicated that other options, including full rejoin, should be on the table. The prime minister told delegates on Tuesday: "Brexit has done more harm than good. So I will take the opportunity around the [UK-EU] summit to lay out to you, to lay out to the country, what I believe are the different options for Britain's long-term relationship with our European partners."

Potential Political Fallout and Electoral Calculations

The debate over rejoining the EU is fraught with political risk. Proponents argue that rejoining would boost trade and restore freedom of movement, while opponents fear it would betray the 2016 referendum result and fuel support for Reform UK. The internal polling and evidence-gathering by No 10 suggest that the leadership is carefully weighing these factors.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK has positioned itself as a staunchly anti-EU party, and any hint of rejoining could galvanise its base. Labour strategists are therefore keen to understand whether a rejoin pledge would attract more voters than it repels. The evidence gathered from think tanks and pollsters will be crucial in shaping the manifesto.

Key Takeaways from the EU Rejoining Debate

• Downing Street is actively seeking data on public support for rejoining the EU.
• Andy Burnham supports including a rejoin option in Labour's policy review.
• Internal divisions exist over the electoral risks of a rejoin pledge.
• Nigel Farage's Reform UK could benefit if Labour appears too pro-EU.
• The outcome will depend on polling evidence and political timing.

Comparing Options for the UK's Relationship with the EU

As part of the review, several options are being considered. The table below outlines the main possibilities and their potential implications.

What This Means for Brexit and Future Policy

The evidence-gathering by No 10 indicates that Brexit remains a live issue in UK politics. While the UK formally left the EU in 2020, the debate over the terms of the relationship continues. A potential rejoin pledge in the next Labour manifesto would mark a dramatic reversal of the 2016 referendum outcome.

However, any move towards rejoining would face significant hurdles, including negotiations with EU member states and domestic opposition. The outcome will depend on how public opinion evolves and whether Labour believes it can win an election on a rejoin platform.

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