Crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have largely returned to pre-war levels, as oil producers and the shipping industry adapt to ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. According to data from Kpler, at least 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) left the region in September, matching the pre-war average excluding Iran. This marks a significant recovery from March, when exports were 10.5 million bpd lower during the first weeks of the Iran war.
Alternative Routes Bypass the Strait
Since the conflict began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Tehran has sought to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, at times declaring the strategic waterway closed. However, Iran's grip appears to have weakened as exporters find workarounds. Pipeline exports and ship-to-ship transfers are among the methods being used, according to analysts tracking the situation. The US military continues to escort some vessels, providing added security.
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About 40% of the region's crude is now transported without transiting the strait, compared with just 17% before the war, through Saudi and Emirati pipelines, according to Kpler analysis. Saudi Arabia was able to restart operations on its east-west pipeline, which can carry up to 5 million bpd, while the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline has also been utilized.
Refined Products Remain Constrained
While crude flows have recovered, refined products such as diesel remain constrained, pushing prices higher. The disruption in refined product shipments highlights the complexity of the region's energy logistics and the lingering impact of the conflict on global fuel markets.
Data Comparison: Crude Exports Before and After the War
| Period | Crude Exports (million bpd) | Share Bypassing Strait |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-war (before Feb 28) | 16.5 | 17% |
| March (first weeks of war) | 6.0 | ~40% |
| September | 16.5 | 40% |
Key Takeaways
- Crude oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to pre-war levels of 16.5 million bpd.
- Pipeline exports and ship-to-ship transfers are key workarounds reducing dependence on the strait.
- About 40% of regional crude now bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, up from 17% before the war.
- Refined product flows, such as diesel, remain constrained, keeping prices elevated.
- Iran's control over the strait appears to have declined in recent weeks.
FAQ
What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it important?
What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it important?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, with about one-fifth of the world's oil passing through it before the war.
How have oil producers bypassed the Strait of Hormuz?
How have oil producers bypassed the Strait of Hormuz?
Producers have increased the use of pipelines, such as Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, as well as ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait. These methods now account for about 40% of regional crude exports.
Why are diesel prices still high if crude exports have recovered?
Why are diesel prices still high if crude exports have recovered?
Refined product flows, including diesel, remain constrained due to the ongoing conflict and logistical challenges. This supply tightness continues to push prices higher, even as crude exports normalize.
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