Conservative Party Conference 2025: Upbeat Mood Masks Poor Polling 2026

The Conservative Party conference in Birmingham will be more upbeat than last year, party members say, but the facts remain grim for the Tories. As the gathering begins on Sunday, almost everyone in the party agrees the mood is notably more unified and positive than in 2024. There is also a similar consensus that Kemi Badenoch is doing well as party leader. That, however, is not the whole story.

“The mood is better but the facts are still very poor,” one Conservative MP said. “We are still a distant third in the polls, and if there was an election tomorrow we would lose, and badly. That means the mood is overhyped.” This is the inescapable shadow over the Tory gathering in Birmingham. Almost two years since Badenoch was elected leader, her party is still polling lower than it did in 2024, when it suffered a catastrophically poor election result.

Conservative Party Conference 2025: The Mood vs. the Numbers

There is, of course, context behind her MPs’ patience, not least the fracturing of the political landscape and the rise of a new competitor on the right in Reform UK. But while Badenoch’s future is secure for now, there is concern among some Tories that her dogged focus on winning back support from Nigel Farage’s party, with little on offer to more centrist voters, poses both political and reputational risks.

“We need to be attracting as many voters who left us for the Lib Dems as Reform, and I don’t personally think we have got the balance right,” a shadow minister said. “There is an economic offering, but they don’t want us to be so intolerant on social issues.”

Polling Position: Then and Now

To understand the challenge facing the Conservatives, consider the polling data. The table below compares the party’s standing at the time of the 2024 general election with its current position.

As the table shows, the Conservatives have not only failed to recover but have actually slipped further, while Reform UK has surged to become a serious contender.

Key Takeaways for the Conservative Party

• Mood vs. reality: Despite a more upbeat conference, the party remains far behind in the polls.
• Reform UK threat: Nigel Farage’s party now rivals the Tories in national polling.
• Centrist voters: Concerns grow that the party is neglecting moderate voters in favour of chasing Reform supporters.
• Leadership security: Kemi Badenoch’s position is safe for now, but pressure could mount if polling doesn’t improve.

What This Means for Kemi Badenoch

Badenoch’s leadership is not under immediate threat, but the conference will be scrutinised for signs of a broader strategy. So far, her approach has focused heavily on winning back voters who defected to Reform UK. That strategy carries risks: while it may shore up the right flank, it could alienate centrist voters who switched to the Liberal Democrats.

“We need to be attracting as many voters who left us for the Lib Dems as Reform,” the shadow minister added. “There is an economic offering, but they don’t want us to be so intolerant on social issues.”

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