Healey Urged to Be Bold on Borrowing for Growth 2026

Daniel Harrolds
Healey Urged to Be Bold on Borrowing for Growth
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New chancellor John Healey is being urged to be bold on borrowing to fuel economic growth, as he prepares his first budget with just 12 weeks to go. The pressure comes as part of Andy Burnham's growth pledge, and economists argue that exploiting fiscal rule flexibility could unlock much-needed infrastructure and housing investment.

Healey's First Budget: Key Challenges

Healey faces immediate pressures, including funding a VAT cut on energy bills promised by Burnham and filling a £5bn gap in the defence investment plan left by predecessor Rachel Reeves. These costs could be met through tax changes, such as a bank windfall levy, or by cutting departmental spending elsewhere.


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Fortunately, Reeves bequeathed significant headroom against fiscal rules—£24bn at the spring forecast—which is unlikely to be fully eroded by the impact of the Iran war. This gives Healey some breathing room, but the long-term challenge remains: delivering a step-change in investment to meet the promise of growth in every postcode.

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Exploiting Fiscal Rule Flexibility

Burnham has indicated there is "scope for more and more rapid investment," and the new definition of debt—public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL)—allows extra borrowing if used to acquire financial assets like company stakes or loans. This historic change could be pushed further, as argued in a recent paper by the Resolution Foundation.

Economists suggest that the Treasury could adopt a more aggressive interpretation of PSNFL to fund productive investments without breaking the rules. This would be a bold move, but one that could significantly boost long-term growth prospects.

Comparison of Fiscal Approaches

Approach Pros Cons
Traditional borrowing Simple, predictable Counts against debt target, limited headroom
PSNFL-based borrowing Unlocks investment, supports growth Complex, requires careful asset valuation
Tax increases Raises revenue directly May stifle economic activity

Key Takeaways for the UK Economy

  • Healey must balance short-term spending needs with long-term investment goals.
  • Fiscal rule flexibility under PSNFL offers a path to higher public borrowing.
  • A bold approach could accelerate infrastructure and housing projects.
  • Tax changes remain an option but carry economic risks.
  • The first budget will be a critical test of Burnham's growth pledge.

FAQ

What is PSNFL?

PSNFL stands for public sector net financial liabilities, a measure of debt that excludes certain financial assets. It allows the government to borrow more if the funds are used to acquire assets like loans or equity stakes, which do not count against the traditional debt target.

How can Healey fund growth without breaking fiscal rules?

Healey can use the PSNFL definition to increase borrowing for investments that yield financial returns, such as infrastructure projects with revenue streams. This would keep the debt measure stable while boosting public investment.

What are the risks of bold borrowing?

Risks include higher interest payments, potential market skepticism, and the challenge of ensuring that investments generate sufficient returns. However, many economists argue that the long-term growth benefits outweigh these risks.

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Daniel Harrolds

Author

Daniel Harrolds

With a career spanning four decades, Daniel is almost a library in the field of precious metals investing and Gold IRAs. His insightful strategies and pragmatic results-oriented approach make him a resource in safeguarding wealth, and financial foresight.


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