Labour has overtaken Reform UK in a voter intention poll for the first time since March 2025, driven by Andy Burnham's strong start as prime minister. The weekly tracker by More in Common shows Labour up four points to 28%, while Reform dropped two points to 24%. This shift marks a significant turnaround after months of declining support for Labour.
Why Labour Is Gaining Momentum
Burnham's first week in office included high-profile policy announcements and media appearances, which analysts say resonated with voters. Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, noted that the focus on cost of living issues appealed to voters Labour lost on both the left and right. The poll also reveals that Reform and the Green party dropped to their lowest vote shares in months.
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Reform UK's Challenges
Reform and its leader Nigel Farage have faced weeks of negative headlines—undeclared gifts, a convicted fraudster adviser, and a chaotic byelection in Clacton. Focus groups show growing anger, with constituents accusing Farage of using them as “pawns” to rebuild his reputation.
| Party | Change in Poll (%) | Current Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | +4 | 28 |
| Reform UK | -2 | 24 |
| Greens | -3 | 8 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 22 |
| Liberal Democrats | +1 | 12 |
Key Takeaways from the Poll Shift
- Labour leads for the first time since March 2025, holding its highest vote share since early 2024.
- Reform UK and the Greens both decline, signaling voter dissatisfaction with opposition parties.
- Burnham’s early focus on cost of living, youth unemployment, and social care appears to be working.
- The Clacton byelection is exposing deep frustration with Nigel Farage’s leadership.
What’s Next for Burnham?
Burnham said he would not get “carried away” but is pleased to have “connected with people.” This week, he plans to address youth unemployment, social care, and housing. The coming months will test whether this momentum can be sustained.
FAQ
When did Labour last lead in a voter poll before this?
Labour last led in March 2025, according to the More in Common tracker. The current poll marks the first time they have overtaken Reform UK since then.
Why is Reform UK losing support?
Reform has suffered from negative headlines about undeclared gifts, a convicted fraudster adviser, and a messy byelection in Clacton. Focus groups show voters feel used by Nigel Farage.
What issues is Andy Burnham focusing on?
Burnham is focusing on the cost of living, youth unemployment, social care, and housing. These issues appear to be resonating with voters who left Labour for Reform or the Greens.