Sahel Violence Hits Record Highs as Al-Qaida and IS Expand 2026

Sahel violence is set to hit record levels this year, with Islamist extremist attacks in Africa’s Sahel region soaring to historic highs, according to new data from the conflict monitor Acled. The figures highlight the continued expansion of al-Qaida and Islamic State-linked groups in the region, even as the US marks the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

Understanding the Surge in Sahel Violence

The Sahel, a vast semi-arid belt stretching across Africa, has become the epicenter of global jihadist activity. Acled’s statistics focus on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—three countries at the heart of the crisis. According to the non-profit, incidents involving jihadist groups in these nations have skyrocketed from just 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. So far this year, 2,145 events have already been logged, and if trends continue, the annual total could exceed 3,000.

This surge is particularly alarming given that global terrorism deaths have fallen to their lowest level since 2008. However, the Sahel has defied this trend, recording some of the world’s highest terrorism death tolls. The region’s instability is exacerbated by weak governance, porous borders, and a lack of economic opportunities, which extremist groups exploit.

Key Drivers Behind the Escalation

Several factors contribute to the sharp rise in Sahel violence. First, the withdrawal of Western forces, notably France, has left a security vacuum. Second, local militaries, often stretched thin and accused of human rights abuses, struggle to contain the insurgency. Third, extremist groups have adapted their tactics, using improvised explosive devices, ambushes, and sieges on towns.

Moreover, the expansion of Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaida affiliate, has intensified competition for territory and resources. This rivalry often leads to indiscriminate violence against civilians, further destabilizing the region.

Comparing Violence Trends: 2016 vs. 2025

Implications for Global Security

The Sahel’s growing violence has far-reaching consequences. It threatens to spill over into neighboring West African coastal states, which have so far been relatively stable. Additionally, the region could become a safe haven for terrorists to plan attacks abroad, reminiscent of al-Qaida’s operations in Afghanistan prior to 9/11.

International efforts to combat the insurgency have been fragmented. While the US and European nations provide military aid and training, the lack of a coordinated strategy and local buy-in has limited effectiveness. Meanwhile, Russia’s Wagner Group has gained a foothold in Mali, complicating the geopolitical landscape.

• Record violence: Sahel attacks projected to exceed 3,000 events in 2025.
• Al-Qaida and IS expansion: Both groups are intensifying operations in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
• Global contrast: While global terrorism deaths decline, Sahel deaths rise sharply.
• Security vacuum: Western troop withdrawals have left a dangerous gap.
• Spillover risk: Neighboring coastal states face growing threats.

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