A programmer in Los Angeles has created a private jet tracker that he calls the Apocalypse Early Warning System. The idea is simple: if a large number of private and corporate jets suddenly take to the skies at once, the world's wealthiest and most powerful people may already know something the rest of us don't.
Kyle McDonald's website uses public flight data to monitor private jet activity in real time. It's a provocative concept that raises questions about data transparency, elite behavior, and how we might spot early signs of a crisis.
How the Private Jet Tracker Works
The system relies on ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) signals, which all aircraft are required to emit. These signals broadcast position, altitude, and speed to maintain air traffic order. McDonald filters this public data to isolate private and charter jets from commercial flights.

With over 23,000 private jets in operation worldwide, the tracker compares current activity against a historical average that accounts for the day, time, and other factors. When the number of jets in the air significantly exceeds the norm, the system flags it as a potential anomaly.
Why Private Jets Are a Signal
Private jets are a proxy for the movements of the ultra-wealthy. If they are suddenly flying more than usual, it could indicate that those with resources are relocating or evacuating ahead of a major event. The tracker doesn't predict what that event might be, but it offers a data-driven way to watch for unusual patterns.
What the Tracker Can and Cannot Tell Us
The private jet tracker is not a crystal ball. It cannot identify the cause of a spike in jet activity, nor can it confirm that an apocalypse is imminent. It simply highlights deviations from normal flight patterns.
However, it does provide a novel lens on global events. For example, during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, private jet traffic reportedly increased as wealthy individuals sought to isolate themselves. The tracker could potentially surface similar trends in the future.
- Real-time monitoring: The system uses live ADS-B data to track private jets as they fly.
- Historical comparison: It compares current activity to a baseline that adjusts for time and day.
- Anomaly detection: Spikes in private jet traffic are flagged as potential warning signs.
- Public data: All information is sourced from publicly available ADS-B signals.
- Limitations: The tracker cannot predict specific events or confirm an emergency.
Why This Matters for the Rest of Us
For many, the private jet tracker is a darkly humorous thought experiment. But it also touches on real anxieties about inequality and access to information. If the wealthy have better information and the means to act on it, their movements could serve as an unintended early warning system.
The project also highlights the power of open data. By aggregating and analyzing publicly available flight signals, McDonald has created a tool that anyone can use to monitor elite behavior. It's a reminder that in the digital age, the movements of the powerful are increasingly visible.
The Ethics of Tracking the Wealthy
While the data is public, using it to track individuals raises privacy concerns. The tracker aggregates data and focuses on overall trends rather than specific individuals, but the line between public and private is blurry. McDonald's project is a case study in how open data can be used for surveillance—even if the intent is benign.
How to Interpret the Tracker's Data
If you visit the Apocalypse Early Warning System website, you'll see a dashboard showing the number of private jets currently in the air and a comparison to the historical average. A significant spike might look alarming, but it's important to consider context.
Factors like holidays, major events, or even weather can affect private jet traffic. The tracker is a tool for curiosity, not a definitive guide to impending doom. Still, it offers a fascinating way to think about how we might spot early signs of a crisis. The background to this story is set out in Private Jet Boom: Record Charter Flights as Ownership Declines. A related thread runs through Ultra-Luxury Group Travel: Private Jets and Five-Star Resorts.
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Data Source | Public ADS-B signals from private and charter jets |
| Update Frequency | Real-time |
| Baseline | Historical average adjusted for day and time |
| Alert Condition | Significant spike above baseline |
| Creator | Kyle McDonald, Los Angeles |
What to Watch Next
The private jet tracker is a living project, and its creator may continue to refine the system. As more people learn about it, the tool could become a go-to source for those interested in elite behavior during crises. Earlier coverage in Emir of Qatar's Private Jet So Large It Disrupted Palma Airport Traffic shows how the argument developed. A closer look at the same subject appears in Sunderland Beat Crystal Palace in Private Jet Transfer Battle.
Whether or not it ever predicts an apocalypse, the project raises important questions about data transparency and the signals we leave behind. In a world where information is power, watching the skies might just give us a glimpse of what's coming. Anyone following the wider picture can start with Bernie Ecclestone Detained Over Undocumented Shotgun on Private Jet. The same theme surfaces in Private Jets Pollute 14x More Than Commercial Flights, Report Says, which takes a different angle.