Jet Fuel Shortages Will Drive Up Summer Air Fares Says IATA Chief 2026

Travelers across Europe should prepare for higher ticket prices this summer as jet fuel shortages and soaring costs put pressure on airlines. Willie Walsh, the head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and former British Airways boss, has warned that rising fuel prices will inevitably push up air fares during the peak holiday season. While some carriers have temporarily lowered fares due to weak demand, Walsh insists that airlines cannot absorb the extra costs in the long run.

The crisis stems from the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for Middle Eastern oil and jet fuel. Even if the strait were to reopen tomorrow, Walsh told the BBC that the disruption could still be felt into next year. Europe is highly reliant on imports of jet fuel from the Middle East, and the sudden supply squeeze has sent prices soaring.

Why Jet Fuel Shortages Are Happening Now

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global fuel supply chains. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked a key passage for tankers carrying crude oil and refined products. According to Walsh, the timing is particularly problematic because airlines typically increase flights and fuel requirements by 25% in July and August compared to March.

“I think the concern will be that if sufficient alternative supply isn’t sourced, there may be some shortages when we get into the peak summer period,” Walsh warned. While he believes widespread cancellations can be avoided, he stressed that rising fuel prices will inevitably be passed on to passengers.

Immediate Impact on Air Fares

Some long-haul flights have already increased in price. Walsh stated, “Over time it’s inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices.” The UK and the rest of Europe are scrambling to find alternative supplies, with the EU recently confirming that US-grade jet fuel can be used by European airlines as long as it is introduced carefully.

Data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows that airlines have already axed 296 departures from UK airports in May, representing 0.75% of the total. This suggests that the industry is already feeling the pinch, and further adjustments may be needed.

Government and Industry Responses

The UK’s transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, has assured the public that summer holiday plans will not face major disruption. She noted that more fuel has been imported from America and that UK refineries have increased production. The government has also introduced a temporary rule change allowing airlines to group passengers from different flights together on fewer planes to save fuel.

However, Walsh warned that the issue could continue into 2027. “Whichever way you look at it, I think this issue will continue for a number of months to come, and may indeed continue into next year,” he said. The EU’s energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, echoed this caution, stating that while there is no immediate threat, shortages could emerge in the longer term.

What Travelers Should Expect

For passengers, the key takeaway is that air fares are likely to rise, especially for long-haul routes. Here’s a quick breakdown of what to expect:

• Higher ticket prices – Airlines will pass on fuel costs to customers.
• Possible last-minute schedule changes – Airlines may consolidate flights to save fuel.
• Longer-term uncertainty – The situation could persist into 2027.

Despite the challenges, Walsh emphasized that there is no need to panic. He believes that with careful management, widespread cancellations can be avoided. Travelers are advised to book early and stay informed about their airline’s policies.

FAQ: Jet Fuel Shortages and Air Fares

Q: Will my summer flight be cancelled due to jet fuel shortages?
A: Probably not. Willie Walsh and UK officials have said that widespread cancellations are unlikely. However, some flights may be consolidated, and schedules could change at short notice.

Q: How much will air fares increase?
A: Exact figures are unclear, but Walsh has stated that the high price of oil will inevitably be reflected in ticket prices. Long-haul flights are already seeing increases, and further rises are expected through the summer.

Q: Is the UK taking steps to prevent shortages?
A: Yes. The UK has increased imports of jet fuel from America, boosted refinery production, and introduced temporary rules allowing airlines to group passengers on fewer planes to save fuel. The EU is also working to approve US-grade jet fuel for European airlines.