Fremantle have the power and poise to ride the hype to an AFL premiership, but history offers cautionary tales. As the Dockers surge toward finals, fans must decide whether to book flights or cool their jets. This analysis examines their chances based on recent AFL history and key turning points.
Historical Context of Premiership Contenders
Since 2000, only seven teams were in as strong a position as Fremantle at this point of the season. Of those, three won the premiership, three lost the grand final, and just one missed the decider entirely. The 2009 Saints were undefeated at this stage, while the 2005 Eagles led by three games. The sole exception was the 2015 Dockers, who lost just two games after round 18 but fell short.
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Key Turning Points in Dockers History
The hinge moment came in the 2015 preliminary final. With momentum against Hawthorn, Tendai Mzungu switched play across half-back. Tommy Sheridan dropped an easy mark under pressure from Cyril Rioli, who slammed home a 50-meter goal. Coach Ross Lyon had his head in his hands as the Hawks cruised to victory. That era ended in heartbreak.
| Team | Position at Round 18 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2009 Saints | Undefeated | Lost Grand Final |
| 2005 Eagles | 3 games clear | Lost Grand Final |
| 2015 Dockers | 2 losses | Missed Grand Final |
| 2024 Dockers | Top 4 | TBD |
What Fremantle Must Do to Succeed
To avoid past mistakes, Fremantle need composure under pressure and a deep bench. Key factors include midfield dominance, defensive resilience, and clutch performances in tight games. The current squad has the talent, but execution in September is everything.
- Power: Strong contested ball and clearance work
- Poise: Decision-making in high-pressure moments
- Depth: Reliable backups for key positions
- Experience: Learning from 2015 failures
FAQ
Can Fremantle win the AFL premiership this year?
Yes, they have the power and poise, but history shows only 43% of teams in their position win the flag. Consistency and clutch play are critical.
What was the 2015 Dockers' biggest mistake?
Poor execution in the preliminary final, including a dropped mark by Tommy Sheridan under pressure from Cyril Rioli, cost them a grand final berth.
How does this Fremantle team compare to past contenders?
They mirror the 2005 Eagles and 2009 Saints in terms of position, but need to avoid the fate of the 2015 Dockers by maintaining composure in finals.
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