Europe Wildfires to Increase 39% Without Action, New Study 2026

Europe wildfires are projected to increase by 39% by the end of the century even in the best-case climate scenario, according to a new study. The research, led by Maik Billing at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, highlights the urgent need for both climate mitigation and improved fire management.

The Study's Findings

The study compared projected annual burnt area in 2070-2100 with modelled results from 2000-2030. It found that the increase in hot, dry, and windy weather—conditions that turn small fires into raging infernos—is the biggest driver of change. Even in an optimistic scenario where global heating is capped at 1.8°C, the burnt area across Europe would rise by 39%.

Best-Case vs Worst-Case Scenarios

The researchers modelled multiple climate pathways. In the worst-case scenario, with global heating reaching 3.6°C above preindustrial levels, the burnt area would almost triple. However, improvements in fire management could moderate these increases by more than 70%, but not eliminate them entirely.

Why Fire Weather is Increasing

Carbon pollution is pushing temperatures higher, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, and wind events. These conditions create a perfect storm for wildfires. The study notes that some regions in Europe will experience moderate increases in fire weather, while others may see little change under the optimistic scenario. But under high emissions, no region is spared.

The Role of Fire Management

Investments in fire management—such as controlled burns, better equipment, and early warning systems—can significantly reduce the impact. However, as Billing emphasizes, "Fire management cannot replace climate mitigation." Even with perfect management, the study shows that high emissions will still lead to strong increases in burnt area.

Key Takeaways

• Europe wildfires are set to increase 39% even in the best-case climate scenario.
• Worst-case emissions could nearly triple the burnt area by 2100.
• Improved fire management can reduce the increase by over 70%.
• Climate mitigation remains essential—fire management alone is insufficient.
• Current fire seasons are already breaking records, with over 600,000 hectares burned in the EU this year.

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