Meteorologists are anticipating a tumultuous summer that could rank as one of the US’s hottest ever. New data released on Tuesday showed the first six months of the year were the hottest ever measured for parts of eight western states. This data arrives as a potentially record-breaking heatwave is underway in the east, threatening to affect more than 100 million Americans.
The National Weather Service expects temperatures over the 4 July holiday weekend to approach all time highs from Washington DC to New York with sweltering heat indexes topping 115F (46C). This week’s intense heatwave will be intensified by the growing influence of El Niño and a massive drought affecting 45 states.
The Role of El Niño and Drought
This year’s El Niño is taking place against a backdrop of particularly severe drought across the US, on par with the droughts of 1988 and 2012 that spawned enormous wildfires and blanketed the continent in sweltering smoke. It was the drought year of 1988 that saw weeks-long fires overwhelm Yellowstone national park, and fires in 2012 plagued California and Texas for months.
“We have known since April 1st that snowpack is very low across the western US,” said Guillaume Mauger, the state climatologist of Washington. “Knowing what to expect early on gives people time to prepare.” Mauger cautioned that while there are many influences that will factor into this summer’s weather, the ongoing drought and a strengthening El Niño will continue to tilt the odds toward unusually warm temperatures.
Record Heat in the East and West
Last week, high temperatures were in the 90s in Seattle and Portland, Oregon – about 20F warmer than usual this time of year. Across the western US, numerous wildfires have broken – including in the mountains of Colorado where a dearth of winter snows remain after a record-warm start to the year. A similarly intense heatwave in recent days pushed temperatures to their highest-ever level in France, Germany and Denmark, resulting in hundreds of deaths across Europe.
“Our communities are feeling the firsthand impacts of severe drought and imminent fire danger,” Jared Polis, the Colorado governor, said at a wildfire briefing on Monday. Local officials have been working for months to strengthen preparations for what is expected to be a brutal fire season, including sourcing additional equipment and working to free up additional federal support from the US Wildland Fire Service.
Wildfire Risks and Water Shortages
Research has tied low April snowpack to a higher risk of mountain wildfires across the entire intermountain west. In the Colorado River basin, water levels are on pace for new record lows and have triggered new mandatory water restrictions affecting Nevada and Arizona. Later this summer, water levels could fall below critical thresholds needed to continue operating major hydropower dams along the river, including Hoover Dam.
Wildfires in Colorado and other western states have already begun sending persistent smoke plumes toward the midwest and eastern states, the latest episode in a worrying trend. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, over 45,000 wildfires have burned more than 4 million acres in the US so far this year.
Key Impacts of the 2026 Summer Heat
- Heatwaves: Potentially record-breaking temperatures from coast to coast, with heat indexes exceeding 115F in major cities.
- Drought: Severe drought affecting 45 states, rivaling the historic droughts of 1988 and 2012.
- Wildfires: Increased fire danger, especially in the intermountain west, with early-season blazes already sending smoke eastward.
- Water Shortages: Mandatory water restrictions in Nevada and Arizona, and potential shutdowns of hydropower dams on the Colorado River.
Preparing for Extreme Heat
Experts recommend staying hydrated, avoiding outdoor activities during peak heat hours, and checking on vulnerable neighbors. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes that heat-related illnesses are preventable with proper precautions. Local cooling centers are being opened in many cities to help residents cope with the dangerous temperatures.
“Our communities are feeling the firsthand impacts of severe drought and imminent fire danger,” Polis reiterated, urging residents to have emergency plans in place. As El Niño strengthens, forecasters expect the heat to persist through August, making this summer one for the record books.
FAQ: Record-Breaking Summer Heat and El Niño
What is El Niño and how does it affect US summers?
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It typically leads to warmer and drier conditions across the northern US, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves and drought.
How can I protect myself during extreme heat?
Stay indoors in air-conditioned spaces, drink plenty of water, wear lightweight clothing, and avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest parts of the day. Check on elderly relatives and neighbors who may be more vulnerable to heat-related illness.
Will the drought and wildfires affect air quality in the eastern US?
Yes, smoke from wildfires in the western US can travel thousands of miles, degrading air quality in the midwest and eastern states. Monitor local air quality indexes and consider using air purifiers indoors when smoke is present.
