The Tigray rebels offensive against the Ethiopian army has reignited fears of a return to civil war in Ethiopia, threatening to unravel a fragile peace and destabilize the Horn of Africa. The offensive, launched by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) into the neighboring states of Afar and Amhara, marks a dramatic escalation after a 2022 ceasefire that ended one of the world’s deadliest conflicts.
Background: The 2020-2022 Tigray War
The war between the Ethiopian federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the TPLF erupted in November 2020. Over two years, it killed an estimated 600,000 people, displaced millions, and triggered a humanitarian crisis. A peace agreement signed in November 2022 raised hopes for stability, but underlying tensions over territory, power-sharing, and accountability have persisted.
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Recent Escalation: Rebel Offensive and New Alliance
On Sunday, seven armed groups, including the TPLF, announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition aimed at overthrowing the government in Addis Ababa. Days later, on Wednesday, TPLF forces seized control of three airports from federal police, prompting state-owned Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to the region. The TPLF also launched attacks into Afar and Amhara, with heavy artillery reported near the town of Yallo.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now,” TPLF vice-president Amanuel Assefa told AFP, confirming that Tigrayan forces are fighting alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara. The group has also taken control of Abala, a key town in Afar.
Key Developments at a Glance
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday | Formation of Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival | Coordinated rebel front against government |
| Wednesday | TPLF seizes three airports | Ethiopian Airlines suspends flights |
| Thursday | Heavy artillery attacks in Afar | Fears of wider conflict |
Regional and International Implications
The renewed fighting risks drawing in neighboring Eritrea, which backed Ethiopian forces in the previous war, and could further destabilize Somalia and Sudan. The international community, including the African Union and United Nations, has called for restraint, but diplomatic efforts have yet to yield a ceasefire.
Key Takeaways
- Tigray rebels offensive into Afar and Amhara signals a return to open conflict.
- A new rebel coalition aims to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
- Seizure of airports and flight suspensions disrupt humanitarian access.
- Fears of a full-blown civil war are growing, with regional spillover risks.
FAQ
What triggered the latest Tigray offensive?
The TPLF accuses the Ethiopian government of violating the 2022 peace agreement and marginalizing Tigray. The government, in turn, blames the TPLF for initiating hostilities. The formation of a new rebel coalition and the seizure of airports have further escalated tensions.
How many people died in the previous Tigray war?
Estimates suggest that around 600,000 people died during the 2020-2022 conflict, making it one of the deadliest wars of the 21st century.
What is the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival?
It is a coalition of seven armed groups, including the TPLF, formed with the stated goal of overthrowing the Ethiopian government. The alliance represents a united rebel front, raising the stakes of the conflict.
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