Is the watch industry living in a bubble? 2026

Michael Goldman
Is the watch industry living in a bubble? - grandgoldman.com
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To collectors, garlic and water. It doesn't come from now, it comes from a while ago, although in the last three years this general trend ofwatch industryhas been increasing. And apparently it's no one's fault. Or at least none of the subjects in the equation want to assume it. This article is not a criticism of anything, but rather an argued narrative about what is happening to many lately.

There are two basic ways of selling luxury and they are as old as civilization. One is price and the other is accessibility. If you play with either of those two variables you are turning something mundane and earthly into something glorious and heavenly.


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Lately, themain watch brandsThey are playing with the second option to create that hype that is so fashionable now. Supreme roll, that clear. Although no one admits it.

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La burbuja de la industria relojera explicada por Relojes EspecialesAt this point we find the axiom that I want to convey to you. Have you been trying to purchase a Rolex Submariner or a Skydweller lately, or perhaps an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15202? If so, you will have noticed the "I didn't do it" face on the part of the salesperson at the store in question, as if you were talking to him about meteorites. Not to mention the hilarious cases of the Rolex Daytona and the Patek Philippe Nautilus. That already acquires the adjective of bleeding and out of place.

The official point of sale

Do you want a Daytona? There isn't one. Do you want a Hulk? There isn't one. Do you want a Pepsi? There isn't one either. So what's up? … Cellinis or Datejust in gold and diamonds. In other words, of the watches that decorate the covers of catalogs in recent years, none are available. We are left looking unfriendly, without a doubt. We are clear that the demand is greater than the supply that thewatch brandsthey want to assume. Hence so much desire is not covered.

The other side of the coin: the gray market

Then you go on the Internet, or on Instagram. And you see the resellers, whatever country they are from, with their arms full of these references that are very difficult to find. Not one, where you say “someone who bought it did badly and had to sell it”… No! They have all these references in stock. And this is where the issue is. There are no RRP pieces, but they are at a premium.

But be careful, I don't judge them, because everyone makes a living the way they can and therefore they sell the pieces above the RRP.

Prices have skyrocketed

La burbuja de la industria relojera explicada por Relojes Especiales La burbuja de la industria relojera explicada por Relojes Especiales

We are not talking about a couple of thousand, we are talking about cases where even double the piece in question is requested. The Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A, which have an official price of €27,260, can be found above €50,000, almost double. The question I ask myself is, will anyone in their right mind buy them?

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La burbuja de la industria relojera explicada por Relojes Especiales
Patek Philippe 5140

For that price you buy a Patek Philippe 5140 with a gold perpetual calendar and you have €5,000 left to go to Miami to celebrate.

The current fan who wants to buy it will have to pay that extra price if he wants it here and now. I personally don't know anyone who pays that "exclusivity fee" above RRP, at least here in Spain. And if you asked me I wouldn't advise anyone to do it. But reality is what it is, and although I don't think brands like it, this system does help them, since reseller is responsible for creating a "hype" that is fantastic for them.

The missing link

So where is the problem? I sincerely believe that the Official Dealer has a problem in this regard. Either because the watches end up in the hands of VIPs who are then in charge of passing them on to resellers, or because they remove most of the pieces from the circuit to deliver them to the resellers themselves. The truth is that the issue is difficult to resolve, but it could be done. As? Currently all watches are easily traceable (traceability). The question is that you want to do it.

The kings of the waiting list

La burbuja de la industria relojera explicada por Relojes EspecialesPatek Philippe Nautilus:He is the true king of desire. The duo formed by the great Gérald Genta (designer) and Kevin Systrom (Instagram creator) has shot this watch to the highest status in world watchmaking. Instagram loves the Nautilus, and you can't fight that. As if that were not enough, this year Patek has raised its retail price again. As we have explained before, real nonsense is being asked for this steel watch.

Rolex Cosmograph Daytona:It is the king of waiting lists par excellence. It also helps that it is less than half the price of the Nautilus. When you ask in a Rolex store about a Daytona, laughter reaches the street. The cheapest one we have found on Chrono24 in Spain is for 16,500 euros and has the “Reserved” seal. The RRP is 11,400 euros, or 5,100 euros less.

La burbuja de la industria relojera explicada por Relojes Especiales

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Rolex GMT-Master II Pepsi (126710BLRO):It came out this year, and the same thing has happened with it that happened with the Rolex Milgauss GV, real atrocities are being asked for it on the gray market. The cheapest one is almost double its price at the official dealer, around 16,000 euros, when its price in the store is 8,550 euros.

Rolex GMT-Master 116710BLNR or Batman:This watch was presented in 2013 and was a clear case of this trend that we are experiencing now. Although it can be found on the gray market for "just" about 2,000 euros above RRP, it is practically impossible to get it from an official dealer.

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15202ST:a new one in these matters. The Brassus guys started by cutting back on their sales points. Then they removed the pata negra 15202ST references (among others) from the points of sale. And this is how exclusivity is created. Currently you can find this reference about 5,000 euros above RRP. Something absolutely new from a brand other than Rolex or Patek.

La burbuja de la industria relojera explicada por Relojes Especiales
Patek Philippe Aquanaut

These are the most exemplary cases, but they are not the only ones. The same goes for the steel Rolex Sky-Dweller (blue dial), Patek Philippe Aquanaut, Rolex Submariner Hulk or the new mixed Rolex GMT-Master II Rootbeer.

La burbuja de la industria relojera explicada por Relojes Especiales
Rolex GMT-Master II ref. 126711CHNR

Anecdote: a few days ago I was walking along Barcelona's Paseo de Gràcia and I decided to go into one of the Rolex stores (there are exactly 2) to ask for a reference. The reference in question was the following: 126711CHNR, a GMT-Master II with a black and brown ceramic bezel and a steel and rose gold finish. A watch, by the way. The lady's response was no less spectacular... "Well, get in line because there are already 17 people ahead of you." If this is so, I imagine that if I had asked about a ceramic Daytona they would have kicked me out of the store.

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Michael Goldman

Author

Michael Goldman

Michael is an award-winning online reporter and content writer with over a decade of experience covering technology, business, and digital culture. His investigative features have been published in leading outlets such as Wired, The Verge, and Forbes, earning him recognition for accuracy and depth.


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