Andy Burnham's Challenge: Winning Back Labour Bases Lost by Starm 2026

Andy Burnham faces a monumental task as he takes over from Keir Starmer, whose tenure ended with the lowest net approval rating for any prime minister since 1977. The Labour Party, once united under a landslide victory, now shows deep fractures among voters, MPs, and the unions that helped found it.

The Collapse of Starmer's Support

When Keir Starmer entered Downing Street in 2024, his net approval stood at -3. By September 2025, it had plunged to -66, according to Ipsos data. This dramatic fall mirrors a broader loss of confidence in Labour's direction, particularly among leftwing voters and union affiliates.

Union Donations Hit a 20-Year Low

Trade union donations to Labour have been declining for decades, but under Starmer they reached their lowest full-year figure in 2025. The chart below illustrates the steady erosion:

This trend reflects a growing rift that began under Neil Kinnock and widened under Tony Blair, but Starmer's decisions—such as sacking Sam Tarry for supporting rail strikers—accelerated the decline. Sharon Graham of Unite even put Starmer “on notice,” warning that union support was not a “blank cheque.”

Key Takeaways for Burnham

• Rebuild trust with union leaders by reversing policies that alienated them.
• Appeal to leftwing voters who defected to smaller parties or abstained.
• Address the internal MP rebellions that plagued Starmer's final months.
• Focus on economic messaging to counter the cost-of-living crisis narrative.

What Burnham Must Do Differently

Unlike Starmer, Burnham has strong grassroots ties in Greater Manchester and a reputation for bridging divides. He must use this credibility to re-engage the trade union movement and demonstrate that Labour can balance fiscal responsibility with worker protections. Early signals include meeting with Unite and Unison leaders to reset relations.

FAQ

Andy Burnham inherits a party at a crossroads. Whether he can reverse the trends that sank Starmer will determine Labour's future. For now, the data offers a clear warning: without the unions and leftwing base, no Labour leader can sustain power.