In a significant political shift, Labour has overtaken Reform UK in a voter intention poll for the first time since March 2025, as Prime Minister Andy Burnham capitalises on early momentum. The weekly tracker by More in Common shows Labour up four points to 28%, while Reform dropped two points to 24%.
Polling Data: How the Parties Compare
The latest figures reveal notable changes across the political spectrum. Below is a comparison of the current vote shares:
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| Party | Current Share | Change from Previous Week |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 28% | +4 |
| Reform UK | 24% | -2 |
| Conservatives | 22% | No change |
| Liberal Democrats | 12% | +1 |
| Greens | 8% | -3 |
Why Labour Is Surging
Andy Burnham’s first week in office included a flurry of high-profile policy announcements and media appearances, particularly focusing on the cost of living. This strategy appears to have resonated with voters who had drifted to both the left and right. According to Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, “It’s clear that momentum is on the prime minister’s side.”
Reform’s Recent Struggles
Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage have faced weeks of negative headlines. Issues include undeclared gifts and donations, an adviser who is a convicted fraudster, and a chaotic byelection in Clacton. Focus groups conducted by pollster Michael Ashcroft revealed growing anger among constituents, with some accusing Farage of using them as “pawns in his little game.”
Key Takeaways from the Poll
- Labour now leads for the first time since March 2025, holding its highest vote share since early 2024.
- Reform UK dropped to its lowest vote share in months, down to 24%.
- The Greens also fell three points to 8%, suggesting Labour is winning back left-leaning voters.
- The Conservatives remain stagnant at 22% while the Liberal Democrats gained one point.
What This Means for UK Politics
Burnham has said he will not get “carried away” but is pleased to have “connected with people.” He plans to address youth unemployment, social care, and housing in the coming weeks. The poll suggests that early policy focus can shift voter intentions quickly, especially when opposition parties face internal turmoil.
FAQ
How accurate are these voter polls?
Polls are snapshots of public opinion at a given time. While not perfect, they are useful for detecting trends. More in Common uses rigorous methodology and weighting to ensure accuracy.
Why did Reform UK lose support?
Reform has faced multiple controversies, including scrutiny over donations and a fraudster adviser. Additionally, Labour’s focus on cost-of-living issues may have attracted former Reform voters.
Will Labour maintain this lead?
It depends on policy delivery and whether Reform can recover. Burnham’s government must continue to address pressing issues like housing and social care to sustain momentum.
The political landscape in the UK remains fluid, but this poll marks a clear turning point. For ongoing analysis and updates, stay tuned to our coverage.
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