Baselworld 2016: what do we expect to find? 2026

We are about to see what is presented inBaselworld 2016, and the only mystery is the news because the statistics are there: the Swiss watch industry completes the fifteenth month of declines until leaving the interannual difference with 2015 (January-January) at a striking 8%. Or, put in figures: 1.5 billion Swiss francs of sales (export prices, not retail prices). The Richemont group, which although not present inBaselworld 2016He is an important player in this game, he has recently laid off 350 people in Switzerland, and some more adjustments are planned...

Gone are the times of waste, ostentation and "let's see who spends more" among a very determined public... Let's say it clearly: Chinese and Russians, friends of ostentation, I suppose because they were the last to arrive at capitalism and with the need to demonstrate that they were the smart ones and the ones who got the most. Now, with aRussia punished by EU sanctionsfor having invaded Crimea without permission and aChina that has banned sumptuous gifts(expensive watches are) to officials, the outlook appears bleak. The rich countries of the Middle East, more specifically the oil emirates, are holding on as best they can - although they are also down - given the spectacular fall in their main source of income and they are trying their luck lest it ends up being their turn. Of course they have a “cushion”, but at the moment they are shaking the world stock markets while they sell huge blocks of shares to recover liquidity. This type of watches – precious metals – experienced a drop of 14% in units while only 4% in value. Could it be that gold always goes up...

This situation, attributable to the cycles of the economy, is something that can even be foreseen precisely by those cycles and it is assumed that the smartest in the class (who?) will have done their homework (reducing production *before* stocks are full, catalog rationalization, slowing down price increases). Of whatI'm not so sure that a relatively new phenomenon has been given the attention it deserves: the smart watch.. It is true that some of the “majors” such as TAG-Heuer, under the iron leadership of that genius called Jean-Claude Biver, already hit the table at Baselworld 2015 with the announcement of its collaboration with Intel and the creation of the internet-only channel for the sale of its smartwatch. The facts have exceeded their wettest dreams: collapsed sales and temporary suspension of sales until production can meet the enormous demand.

But what about the rest? In February 2015, Frederique Constant presented its “horological smartwatch” and its president, Peter Staas, another visionary, announced “the end of quartz watches that only tell the time…” The numbers from the Swiss Watch Federation (FH) prove him right: watches in the range between 0 and 500 CHF (always export prices) have fallen by a significant 15%. And even though this is still compatible with the refrain that smartwatches will not overshadow traditional watchmaking, the truth is that many brands – including some very large ones – base their business on quartz watches that now feel the breath of these new cyborgs on their necks.

For example Tissot: it is true that their T-Touch give much more information than the time, but it turns out that the new ones do that and more. And facing the supposed Achilles heel of autonomy, we have that the aforementioned Frederique Constant already incorporates a long-lasting battery. And it is no small thing, because the margin that Tissot obtains from the T-Touch is around 80%, so any large drop in these references is going to make a big hole in its income statement. It also doesn't seem like the rest of the Swatch group – nor traditional brands in general – have done much on that front. At least for now, so this new edition ofBaselworld 2016that is about to open will answer several questions.

Follow the chronicle of the fairBaselworld 2016in almost-direct.

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