NDIS Autism Reforms: 145,000 Australians to Lose Support 2026

The NDIS reforms are set to remove almost 145,000 Australians with autism from the scheme by 2031, according to internal government documents. This sweeping change targets the national disability insurance scheme, aiming to refocus funding on participants with significant and complex needs. From 2028, nearly two-thirds of those affected will be aged 18 or under, raising urgent questions for families across Australia.

What the NDIS Reforms Mean for Autism Support

The federal government plans to introduce a functional capacity test to tighten eligibility. Currently, people with autism make up 42% of the NDIS, the fastest-growing cohort. Without intervention, the $52 billion scheme could balloon to $117 billion annually within a decade. The reforms aim to reduce growth from a peak of 23% in 2021-22 to under 2% over four years.

Health department documents reveal that 241,000 participants will be shifted off the NDIS by June 2031. Of these, 60% (144,600) have autism or developmental delays as their primary disability. Additionally, 105,000 new entrants will be blocked from joining during this period.

Who Is Most Affected by the Changes?

Children and young adults face the greatest impact. Sixty-four percent of those losing eligibility—approximately 154,240 individuals—are aged 18 and under. The majority of autistic participants added in late 2025 were under 14, highlighting the scheme's focus on early intervention. Advocates warn that removing support could strain families and community services.

Timeline and Implementation of NDIS Eligibility Changes

The reforms are expected to pass parliament next month despite fierce criticism. From 2028, the functional capacity test will be phased in, targeting participants with less severe needs. The government estimates this will keep the total participant count around 600,000. For context, the NDIS currently serves over 600,000 people, with autism representing the largest diagnostic group.

Families should prepare for a transition period. The health department expects the changes to reduce scheme growth to just below 2% annually, a drastic slowdown from its historic 23% peak. Critics argue the cuts undermine the NDIS's original purpose of supporting all Australians with permanent disabilities.

Key Takeaways for Australian Families

• 145,000 autistic participants will lose NDIS support by 2031.
• 64% of those removed are aged 18 or under.
• A functional capacity test will determine eligibility from 2028.
• An additional 105,000 new applicants will be denied entry.
• The scheme's cost growth will drop to under 2% annually.

Frequently Asked Questions About the NDIS Reforms

These NDIS reforms represent a major shift in Australia's disability support landscape. With almost 145,000 autistic individuals affected, families must stay informed and seek alternative resources. The changes underscore the need for a balanced approach that ensures sustainability while protecting vulnerable Australians.