The Labour Party faces a critical crossroads as Andy Burnham takes over from Keir Starmer, whose net approval rating plummeted to -66 by September 2025. This article analyzes the voter bases and union support lost under Starmer, and explores whether Burnham can rebuild trust.
The Union Fracture Under Starmer
Trade unions have been the backbone of the Labour Party since its founding, but donations have steadily declined over the past 20 years. Under Starmer, this trend accelerated to its lowest point in 2025. The rift deepened after Starmer sacked Sam Tarry for appearing on a picket line in 2022, and Unite's Sharon Graham put him "on notice" in 2023.
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| Year | Union Donations (£) | Labour Net Approval |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4.2 million | -15 |
| 2024 | 3.1 million | -40 |
| 2025 | 1.8 million | -66 |
Key Takeaways for Burnham
- Rebuild union relationships by engaging with leaders like Sharon Graham early.
- Address voter disillusionment among leftwing supporters who felt abandoned by Starmer's centrist shift.
- Prioritize public services such as the NHS and local councils to regain trust.
- Communicate clearly on issues like bin strikes and rail disputes to avoid further alienation.
Voter Base Erosion
Starmer's landslide victory in 2024 masked deep cracks in Labour's coalition. By 2025, leftwing voters and working-class communities had shifted away, with many citing broken promises on taxation, housing, and workers' rights. Burnham, a former mayor of Manchester, must now win back these lost bases.
FAQ
Why did Keir Starmer lose support so quickly?
Starmer's net approval fell from -3 to -66 due to policy U-turns, union conflicts, and perceived neglect of leftwing voters. His handling of public sector strikes and economic austerity further eroded trust.
Can Andy Burnham reunite the Labour Party?
Burnham has a stronger track record with unions and regional voters, but he faces a fractured party and a skeptical electorate. Success will depend on bold policy shifts and authentic leadership.
What are the biggest challenges for Burnham?
Key challenges include restoring union donations, winning back leftwing voters, and addressing public dissatisfaction with public services. He must also manage internal party divisions and a hostile media environment.
Burnham's path forward is steep, but not impossible. By focusing on grassroots engagement and union partnerships, he can begin to reverse the damage. The next 12 months will be decisive for Labour's future.
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