Saudi Arabia is preparing a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, according to Yemeni sources, aiming to break the chokehold on its oil exports through the southern Red Sea. This escalation marks a significant turn in the long-running conflict, with potential global energy market implications.
Saudi Military Strategy: Sea and Land Offensive
Recent reports indicate that Saudi forces have been withdrawing from eastern Yemen, possibly to reposition for a land offensive. Simultaneously, Riyadh is organizing a naval coalition to protect shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. The Saudi defence ministry announced that 14 states, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan, and Djibouti, have issued a joint statement supporting a multinational maritime defence coalition.
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The Houthis, who control Sana’a and much of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, declared a blockade against Saudi ships on 20 July, but deny plans to impose tolls on all vessels. They conditionally lift the blockade if Saudi Arabia lifts its own blockade on Yemen, framing the dispute as about Yemen’s future rather than Iran.
Red Sea Coalition and International Response
Riyadh has also asked the US and European nations including Germany, France, the UK, and Italy to join the Red Sea coalition. The EU already operates a naval protection mission, Aspides, in the region. It remains unclear whether the Houthis are mounting a general blockade or one targeted solely at Saudi Arabia.
On 25 July, Houthi forces claimed they hit “sensitive” oil transport sites inside Saudi Arabia, linking eastern province oilfields to a Red Sea export hub. If the Red Sea route closes to Saudi shipping, combined with the Strait of Hormuz blockade on the other side, the kingdom’s oil exports could be severely constrained.
Impact on Global Oil Supply
Up to 80% of Saudi crude exports were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict escalated. The Red Sea route is critical for exports to Europe and North America. A prolonged disruption could spike global oil prices and threaten energy security.
Here is a comparison of the two key chokepoints:
| Chokepoint | Location | Impact on Saudi Oil Exports | Current Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | Between Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman | Up to 80% of crude exports | Potential blockade threat |
| Bab al-Mandab / Red Sea | Between Yemen and Djibouti | Significant share to Europe/Asia | Active Houthi attacks |
Key Takeaways
- Saudi Arabia is preparing a dual sea and land offensive against Houthi forces.
- A naval coalition of 14 states supports maritime security in the Red Sea.
- Houthi attacks target Saudi oil infrastructure, threatening global supply.
- The conflict could severely constrain Saudi oil exports if both chokepoints are blocked.
- International involvement, including EU and US, may shape the outcome.
FAQ
Why is Saudi Arabia launching an offensive against the Houthis?
What is the Red Sea coalition?
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As the situation evolves, the international community watches closely. The potential for a major military escalation in Yemen carries significant risks for regional stability and global energy security. Stay informed with GrandGoldman.com for the latest updates.